IVF calculator can tell couples their chances of success

AN “IVF calculator” has been developed to predict a couple’s likelihood of conceiving a baby.

The tool, which can be used by doctors or people seeking fertility treatment, can estimate a couple’s chance of having a baby before and after their first IVF treatment, and over multiple cycles.

Writing in the BMJ, researchers led by the University of Aberdeen described how the calculator could “help to shape couples’ expectations”.

It takes into account the age of a woman, how many years she has been trying to conceive, whether she has an ovulation problem, an unexplained fertility issue or whether there is a male fertility problem among other factors.

The tool is based on data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) which collects data on all UK licensed fertility treatments. Data was analysed from all women who started IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection from 1999 to 2008 using their own eggs and partner’s sperm.

They found that of 114,000 women who completed almost 185,000 cycles of treatment, 29.1 per cent had a live birth following their first cycle. Fortythree per cent had a baby following six cycles of treatment. The researchers found the chances of a couple having a baby declined after the woman reached 30 and as infertility continued.

The calculator uses the data to predict IVF success. It says a 30-year-old woman with two years of unexplained infertility has a 46 per cent chance of having a live birth from the first complete cycle of IVF and a 79 per cent chance over three complete cycles.

Prof Adam Balen, chairman of the British Fertility Society, said: “This is an important paper which analyses the HFEA database to calculate prediction models for success based upon baseline characteristics and the data collected during the treatment.

“It is important to remember that treatment should be individualised to the patients’ particular needs and profile and it can still be difficult to accurately predict the outcome.”