With alliances shifting, don’t skimp on defence

Back in 2010, it was impossible to cough in the City without soon afterwards receiving an invitation to some breakfast or lunchtime roundtable on “Russian investment opportunities”. Russia’s banks were hiring and investment bankers from rival firms were falling over themselves to court the management of hitherto obscure companies that were surely about to float on the London markets.

Contrary to some of the sharp words written later, all this business activity did not stop the UK from adopting one of the hardest lines against the Kremlin after the Ukraine invasion. It’s a measure, then, of Britain’s current isolation on Russia policy that cash is once again flowing into funds specialising in Russian investments.

The man to blame or credit is, of course, Donald Trump, whose list of dubious connections to Russia goes beyond the shocking phone habits of his now former national security adviser, Michael Flynn. Investors are betting that with or without Flynn, Trump will begin to chip away at the Western sanctions that were imposed on Russia after Crimea.

It is not until after several European elections this year, however, that we will know more fully how the West might align itself in response to Vladimir Putin’s boldness. And on this particular issue, Britain’s Brexit interests run directly counter to its geopolitical priorities.

The contrast is most obvious in France. Those aiming for a good EU trade deal have reason to hope for the election of François Fillon, the Thatcherite pragmatist. If the priority is maintaining European sanctions on Russia, however, Emmanuel Macron would by far be the preferred winner. Marine Le Pen is, of course, the most pro-Russian of them all.

The picture in Germany is less clear. Angela Merkel, with an eye on Germany’s gas supply, initially soft-pedalled on Russia, but has recently hardened her stance. She would certainly be Britain’s friendliest partner for Brexit talks, compared to the socialist Martin Schulz, who takes a dogmatic line on EU questions. On the other hand, Schulz takes an uncompromising view on Russia and wants to keep sanctions in place.

Since, unlike Russia’s spies, ours tend not to involve themselves intimately in others’ elections, we will have to watch Europe’s votes play out from the sidelines while trying to keep open as many options as possible. Meanwhile, it would at least be a good idea to ensure we are meeting our own Nato defence spending obligations. We can hardly harangue others about Russia or Nato when our own Armed Forces are only just managing. The love-in with Russia is not the only shifting fashion in the City. One of the square mile’s most storied institutions, Lloyd’s of London, is to abolish one of its most storied traditions: lunchtime boozing.

This may sound sensible to the average layman, who might wonder why insurance brokers need to down a couple of pints and half a bottle of claret before their afternoon’s work. But for me, the crackdown sparks a wistful feeling. One of my first jobs as a financial reporter in the City was to collect “vox-pops” – brief reactions to some topic of the day from members of the financial working public.

The best strategy was to set off at lunchtime, when the City’s deskdwellers emerge for their daily sandwich or paltry salad box. Smokers were easy pickings, since they were stuck in one place for at least a few minutes. The middle-aged men staring out expressionlessly across the river from park benches were a bit hit-andmiss, by contrast.

But the best targets of all were the lunchtime drinkers, led by the Lloyd’s men. Like a herd of lowing cows, they would fill the Victorian arcades of Leadenhall Market every day, striped shirts straining over rounded bellies, cheerfully exchanging gossip and buying rounds. Not once did I ever get a quote out of them – they were too savvy to let their names and photos appear in the paper – but they served as a reminder that in a world of superfood salads and midday spin classes, some members of the professional classes were still capable of enjoying themselves at work. Britain needs trade negotiators. Luckily, the collapse of the US’s two biggest prospective trade deals, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, has left Washington with a surplus. The US lead negotiator on TTIP, Michael Punke, isn’t needed any more, and headed straight back to his home town in Wyoming when Trump was elected.

Punke has more than enough experience. Not only did he represent the US at the World Trade Organisation, he also harboured a talent on the side: novel-writing. You might have heard of his most successful effort, The Revenant, because it was made into a Hollywood blockbuster starring Leonardo DiCaprio. The story involves a fur trapper setting out for revenge after a bruising encounter with a bear. Let’s hope that’s not a template for US Russian policy.

‘With or without Flynn, Trump will begin to chip away at Western sanctions imposed on Russia’