President-elect’s vision for EU rebirth will be tested in fiery clash of values
Emmanuel Macron has vowed to lead a “rebirth” of the European project after a decade of crisis and stagnation in which Eurosceptic sentiment has been on the rise, both in his France and around the continent.
The president-elect wants to restore the links between the EU and its citizens, promising a “Buy European Act”, EU “citizens’ conventions” and Eu-wide constituencies for the European Parliament.
But while such heady talk is welcomed in Brussels, it ignores many of the intractable realities of Europe’s current political divisions.
The continent is split east-west on migration and values and north-south over sovereign debt and the euro.
Mr Macron’s multicultural, globalising values are explicitly rejected by the “illiberal democracies” of Poland and Hungary that champion national identity and what they call Europe’s “Christian” culture. At home, the picture is not much brighter. In his programme for Europe, Mr Macron said that “true sovereignty is based on European action”.
Le Pen voters, and the many millions more French who made up the 49 per cent who voted for anti-eu parties in the first round, emphatically disagree. For them, sovereignty is located not in “European action” but in the nation state. The consequences of alienating what Ms Le Pen’s people call the new “patriotic front” in France are potentially explosive.
On the eurozone, Mr Macron seeks deeper integration, ultimately with plans for a eurozone budget and finance minister as well as common backstops for eurozone depositors and unemployed.
The problem is that Germany has shown deep reluctance to buy into such schemes, fearing that it will set a bad example to Europe on the need for more fiscal discipline and will leave the prudent German “Swabian” housewife on the hook for the bills.
Mr Macron also wants to deepen co-operation on EU defence, but the problem is that on this issue the French and the Germans don’t really agree, according to EU diplomats.
While Germany wants to focus on “institution building” and creating more European integration through “permanent strategic co-operation”, France wants actual capabilities that can be deployed to the field and lighten its own burden internationally.
Lastly, there is Brexit. Mr Macron has promised to defend his ideal of Europe in the coming Brexit negotiations. He described the UK vote to leave as a “crime” against Europe and civilised western values. We are told that Mr Macron does not seek to “punish” the UK, but believes that “Europe is part of the solution”, not going-it-alone, like Britain. This puts France and Mr Macron on course for imposing an uncompromising Brexit settlement on Britain.
Today, Mr Macron wraps himself in the European flag. Tomorrow, he must face the fact that his vision for Europe is no longer shared in many corners of the continent.
If he stands his ground, a true clash of values lies ahead.