Stay flexible with border control targets

T heresa May congratulated Emmanuel Macron on his victory in the French election, but might soon have cause to regret his arrival in the Élysée palace. The President-elect has threatened to revisit the Le Touquet treaty under which UK border controls operate in France rather than on British soil.

The Prime Minister conceded yesterday that the agreement could be up for renegotiation if Mr Macron follows through on his threat. He will be tempted to do so since getting tough on immigration will go down well with the millions who voted for Marine Le Pen on Sunday. Moreover, although this is a bilateral matter between Britain and France, inflicting another penalty on the UK for leaving the EU would play well in Brussels.

But it would backfire on France. As Mrs May pointed out, the Le Touquet treaty works for the benefit of both countries. If it became apparent that there were no barriers to getting across the Channel then hundreds of thousands of migrants might arrive in northern France to make their way to the UK. This would be a headache to British immigration and border staff, but would also make life difficult for the French, who would have to deal with those sent back or refused passage for failing to have the correct travel papers.

Nonetheless, losing the so-called juxtaposed border controls with France would make it much harder to cut immigration to the UK after Brexit and especially to achieve the “tens of thousands” net migration target. This pledge is to be repeated in the Tory manifesto even though it has been unattainable since it was first made in 2010. Then the figure was around 220,000. Last year, it was 330,000. If ever a manifesto pledge had failed to be delivered then this is it. Some say this is an argument for abandoning the target; yet the very fact that immigration – already at historically record levels – continues to rise is illustrative of the need for firmer controls.

However, this is not an issue that can sensibly be debated within the context of a target. A rational policy would not be fixated on an arbitrary ambition but rather identify who we want in the country and who we don’t, enabling the former to come while dissuading the latter. Leaving the EU will give the UK the power to do this for the first time in decades. But since it may turn out that “low tens of thousands” is not what we need, Mrs May would do well to leave herself some flexibility.