Berlin listens politely, but will not budge
Emmanuel Macron is the fourth French president to have been in office during Angela Merkel’s 12-year tenure as German chancellor, and so it was with a faintly indulgent smile that she greeted the Europe Union’s new young pretender as he arrived in Berlin yesterday.
The mismatch in experience was so apparently obvious that Mrs Merkel felt it necessary to say in advance that she would not behave like a “know-it-all” to the new occupant of the Elysée, but would listen carefully to his vision for France.
Such protestations of modesty on Mrs Merkel’s part are to be expected, but they cannot conceal the reality that if France wants to rekindle its post-war partnership with Germany, it needs to demonstrate it is committed to reforms.
Mrs Merkel pointedly did not embarrass Mr Macron, who has campaigned on an expansive plan for a “rebirth” of the European Union. She promised to “draw up a common roadmap for the future of the EU and eurozone”, mentioning specifically defence and tax issues.
She even did not rule out reopening the EU’S treaties, even if she was quick to qualify that with a reminder that, “first we need to work on what we want to change”. In reality, Mrs Merkel’s vision for a “new” Europe is considerably less expansive than Mr Macron’s. As the diplomatic theatre unfolded in Berlin, the grand visions of the campaign were quietly squashed by Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, who told Le Figaro they were simply “not realistic”.
As Mr Schaeuble acknowledged, in practice there is no political appetite for reopening the EU treaties and holding referenda to ratify such changes, because too many of the citizens of Europe will say “no”.
Indeed in Germany the public has little appetite to pay for – as they see it – their more profligate eurozone partners. Mr Macron was pictured on the front of Der Spiegel magazine after his election, under the headline Teurer Freund – “Expensive Friend”.
More heartfelt from Mrs Merkel was her public commitment to the idea that “Europe will only do well if there is a strong France”, a backhanded compliment, since it acknowledged the audible arrhythmia that has developed in the Europe’s Franco-german heart of late.
To restore it to full health, Mr Macron will have to deliver on his promise to reform – to cut France’s deficit, to trim the bloated state which spends 57 per cent of GDP and wrestle down France’s mammoth debt from its current 96 per cent of GDP closer to Germany’s 71 per cent.
Only when given such grounds to believe they will not be left picking up the bills, will Germany countenance the kind of burden-sharing measures that Mr Macron wants to see in the eurozone.