NHS warned pensioners who need care will rise by a quarter
THE number of pensioners needing social care will rise by a quarter by 2025, according to new research released during a heated political row over how the system is funded.
The study, for The Lancet, points to a 49 per cent rise in dementia cases within the coming decade, with an increasing number of people living for longer with the condition, as well as other chronic diseases requiring care.
It warns that the growing demand has “serious implications for a cashstrapped and overburdened NHS and an under-resourced social care system”.
Researchers from University College London and Liverpool University said that within a decade there will be an extra 560,000 people in need of care in England and Wales, taking the total to 2.8 million – a rise of 25 per cent.
The warning comes amid a furore over proposed funding plans for social care, which have been dubbed a “dementia tax” by critics. On Monday, after a weekend of hostile reaction to the plans, Prime Minister Theresa May was accused of a U-turn in announcing a cap on social care costs to the individual.
However, councils remain concerned about how they are to foot the bill. Local government experts are also warning that councils could face big legal bills if they are forced to recover money from the relatives of those who delay paying for their care under the new rules.
Currently, only those in residential care can defer payment of bills, but the Tory manifesto commits a future government to allow everyone to do this.
Tory plans suggest older people will be able to pay after they die, using their property, savings or both, but leaving the last £100,000 in their estate.
Now, it has emerged that the system could be based around a national “social care bank”, a Whitehall-backed lender to issue and recover money for social care – a system likened to the student loans scheme.
Questions remain about whether interest would be charged, but one Tory source said ministers are keen to work with councils to lessen the risks of administering the new scheme which will be part of a consultation later this year.
Liam Booth Smith, chief executive of the Localis think tank, said the system will not work unless government pools the risk involved in deferring payments by guaranteeing the money centrally.
Researchers said the new study shows the need to improve provision of institutional care, as well as tax allowances or cash benefits for family members providing voluntary care.
The Lancet study forecasts future trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales between 2015 and 2025, taking into account predicted rates of heart and artery disease, dementia and other conditions.
The proportion of the population aged over 65 is expected to rise by almost a fifth to reach 12.4 million by 2025 while life expectancy among 65-year-olds is forecast to increase by 1.7 years to 86.8. Dementia is seen as the biggest disability threat, with rates expected to increase by 49 per cent among the over 65s, the study found.
By 2025, an estimated 699,000 people in England and Wales are likely to need care for dementia, compared with 468,000 in 2015, the study said.