Britain must decide whom it can trust

Opinion pollsters have had a pretty poor record at predicting the outcome of elections for the best part of a quarter of a century. During the 1992 general election campaign they all pointed to a hung parliament; yet on the day the Conservatives under John Major won, albeit only with a small majority. Ever since, the polling companies have sought to adjust their methodology to take account of their failure to pick up Conservative voters; and by and large they have been unable to do so. At the last election in 2015, the Tories won again when all the polls had a hung parliament as the most likely outcome.

This time, the polls have shown the Conservatives consistently ahead. Before the election was called, Theresa May enjoyed a lead of 20 points or more in some surveys. This was never going to be sustained in a campaign; and sure enough, with one week to go, the average of polls show the Conservatives still comfortably ahead.

However, aspects of the campaign which some in the party feel have been mishandled, notably the furore over care costs, are feeding through into the polls. A Yougov survey published yesterday even went so far as to suggest another hung parliament, using a new polling model which allowed for such a wide margin of error that it is hard to take seriously. It estimated that the Tories are in line to lose 20 seats and Labour to gain 30, leaving Mrs May 16 seats short of an overall majority.

Such a result would be a disaster for the Prime Minister and for the country. The idea that Jeremy Corbyn might end up leading the largest party in Parliament and thereby be in a position to become prime minister in a coalition with the SNP and other parties should give everyone pause.

In the end, that is what this election is about: is the country willing to trust its future to a politician who in the last parliament did not even command the confidence of his own MPS and who espouses the most socialist policy agenda seen in the UK for generations? If Labour backbenchers did not trust him and tried to push him out, why should he be foisted on the rest of us?

The likelihood of that happening remains small, but it is real enough for people who might be thinking of using their vote to protest against the Tories or Brexit to use it wisely. And for those who were thinking of not voting at all, they need to ask themselves this question: do they really want to wake up on June 9 with Jeremy Corbyn in No 10?