What a difference two elections make

Theresa May’s trip to Paris today for talks with Emmanuel Macron promises to be a humbling affair for the Prime Minister. After her setback at the polls she will be in the company of a French president who is expected to win the biggest parliamentary majority for decades, trouncing the Socialists in the process. Ironically, she got 43 per cent of the vote while Mr Macron’s REM party managed just 33 per cent in the first round of legislative elections, on a low turnout.

The French president is the master of all he surveys while she cannot even stick to her timetable for the Queen’s Speech or guarantee parliamentary support for any of her policies. While Mrs May takes to Paris the status of her office, she has lost much of the authority to back it up. How this weakness influences the Brexit negotiations, due to start next week (though these might now be delayed), will determine the future of the United Kingdom.

The Prime Minister emphasised during the election campaign that she needed a strong mandate or Brexit would be placed in jeopardy. Since she is in a worse position than before, Mrs May now needs to demonstrate qualities of leadership to overcome the handicap of running a minority government.

She began the process yesterday, when she met Tory backbenchers at Westminster and promised to get them out of the mess she had made. While there is anger over the way the Downing Street team handled the election, there is also a pragmatic acknowledgement that they need to make the best of the current situation, or end up with another election that Labour might win.

Yet things will not be straightforward. Attempts to secure DUP support continue and the price to be exacted is unclear, as is the impact of any arrangement on the Northern Ireland political process. Moreover, the “confidence and supply” agreement will only cover key business like the Queen’s Speech and Budget, making all other legislation vulnerable to opposition attack.

Above all, the clock is ticking towards Britain’s departure from the EU in 2019 and, without a majority, the type of Brexit Mrs May had in mind looks doomed. There is talk of a cross-party commission to agree a compromise that would ensure a majority for an agreed Brexit. In view of the Westminster arithmetic, this idea needs to be looked at seriously.