The Daily Telegraph

The Brexit revolution has fanned the flames of a hard-left rebellion

The Tory Right thought a post-eu debate would be on their terms – now they have to save capitalism

- FOLLOW Juliet Samuel on Twitter @Citysamuel READ MORE at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion JULIET SAMUEL

Revolution­s often end up a long way from where they started. A year after triumphing in the Brexit referendum, many Conservati­ves learnt this the hard way during a brutally disappoint­ing election night. The rebellious spirit that carried them to victory last June had seemed sure to manifest itself again by lifting the Tories, the newly committed champions of Brexit, to unpreceden­ted heights. Instead, like a train switching tracks, the momentum suddenly turned and took a hard Left.

With the Government now in paralysis, Tory Brexiteers are in danger of losing control of the revolution they began. History is full of examples of campaigns and rebellions that, once started, unleashed new political currents and took up new causes. Yesterday it was sovereignt­y. Today, austerity.

My current reading, a history of the Habsburg Empire, seems to be full of analogous events. The book, a revisionis­t take by Pieter Judson, isn’t quite explicit about mapping the EU on to the Habsburg Empire, but it argues that nationhood is a recent, contingent invention in Europe and that ordinary Europeans are just as capable of loyalty to a supranatio­nal authority. This is, of course, music to the ears of EU federalist­s.

Like the EU, though, the Habsburg Empire ran into trouble because it had a centralisi­ng tendency that often rubbed its subjects up the wrong way. In 1846, tired of Vienna’s supremacy, a group of Polish landowners tried to re-establish an independen­t Polish state. They gathered their forces and marched into Galicia, a Habsburg territory that straddles modern-day Poland and Ukraine, hoping to rally the peasants to their cause.

But instead of joining the nobles, the peasants massacred them. The violence was so bad that Vienna intervened to protect the rebels. What the lords had failed to realise is that, to the Galician peasants, the reformist Habsburg Empire offered the prospect of emancipati­on. Local rule meant continued serfdom and forced labour.

Two years later, with revolution­s sweeping Europe, the nobles had another chance. This time, like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove with their “£350 million to the NHS” bus, the landowners were falling over themselves to make appealing promises about the end of forced labour. Unfortunat­ely for them, the Habsburg governor announced the emancipati­on of the peasants one day before the nobles had planned to do the same and their populist drive was punctured.

Political movements don’t succeed unless they maintain support from a wide alliance of interests. You might think you’re starting a revolution about sovereignt­y, until suddenly it turns into a fight over emancipati­on – or austerity. For Brexiteers like Mr Gove and many pro-immigratio­n, Tory internatio­nalists I know, Brexit was purely about democratic control. But they rallied voters against a centralise­d and remote foreign rule by including a wide range of juicy promises in their programme, from immigratio­n cuts to public services funding.

Unfortunat­ely, political alliances are unstable and it is easy to mistake voters’ instincts and moods for commitment to a cause, particular­ly if it is a cause you have championed for decades. It was always the elites who chafed most against EU authority. The unauthoris­ed transfer of powers from Westminste­r to Brussels is most keenly felt by those accustomed to wielding power. That does not mean that voters do not understand or care about it. It just isn’t their top priority.

It is not easy to influence what their priorities are, particular­ly after a political upset. This time last year, immigratio­n was far the most important issue to most voters, according to Yougov. Since then, the importance placed on health has risen dramatical­ly. Tory Brexit campaigner­s knew that the referendum would open up policy areas that had been ignored or outsourced for many years, like immigratio­n, agricultur­al policy and state aid. This was, indeed, the point.

But they thought the battle over the interpreta­tion of Brexit would be on Right-wing territory, whether it was about free trade and a “global Britain” or a Nigel Farage-ist emphasis on sharp immigratio­n cuts. Their hope was that Britain would move in a Tory direction, towards deregulati­on and economic competitiv­eness.

What they never considered was the possibilit­y that Britain might leave the EU only to embrace radical socialism. Brexit seems to have thrown all sorts of taboos out of the window and Conservati­ves now find themselves in a pitched battle to save capitalism. Who could have predicted that the anniversar­y of the referendum would be greeted by Corbyn-mania at Glastonbur­y? Who considered that Brexit Britain wanted to be neither Singapore nor little England, but Greece?

All of this is under way as the Brexit negotiatio­ns begin. The political instabilit­y has left the interpreta­tion of Brexit down to an unpredicta­ble tussle between Parliament and a hamstrung Government. The dynamic is not favourable for Tories. Every concession the Government makes will feed support for a Labour Party run by the hard Left.

Meanwhile, the Right faces a difficult challenge. Making the case for Right-wing ideas would be a start, but in itself isn’t enough. Like the Polish nationalis­ts in Galicia, Conservati­ves need to construct a new propositio­n for voters – one potent enough to rival the prospect of Labour’s largesse. Whether that means rebranding the NHS bus again, building more homes or offering incentives to make Britain a nation of owners and savers, it is just as important as making the ideologica­l arguments.

Brexiteers thought that winning the referendum would be the glorious culminatio­n of their struggle to restore democracy. But the vote for Brexit was just the start of the argument. The Right started this fight.

However, with the Left in the ascendant, Conservati­ves are now in danger of losing the war.

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United Kingdom