Juncker has ensured we won’t regret Brexit

Jean-claude Juncker, President of the EU Commission, departed from the script for his “State of the Union” address to the European Parliament yesterday. He said, as intended, that the rest of the EU regretted the UK’S decision to leave in March 2019, but added as an aside: “You will soon regret it as well.” As his speech continued, however, it became apparent that we would have regretted far more a decision to stay, for Mr Juncker outlined a future for the EU that the UK could never have countenanced.

A vote to Remain last year would have confronted the UK with a stark choice: either to continue the forlorn fight against the centralising tendencies of the EU “core”, or capitulate.

The pressure to do the latter would have been enormous. As was often stated during the referendum campaign, the status quo was never an option, any more than it had been over the previous 40 years, when what we were assured was a trading bloc metamorphosed into a supranational political construct.

Doubtless, the UK would have tried to stay out of the eurozone and the Schengen area, the cornerstones of nascent European statehood. But it would have become increasingly hard to do so had the country decided to remain.

It is clear from Mr Juncker’s “road map” to the future that the concept of “ever-closer union” set out in the Treaty of Rome is to be vigorously pursued. Arguably, Brexit has supercharged the integrationist ambitions of the Commission, which has always regarded Britain as a barrier to the onward march of euro-federalism. But proposals for another Great Leap Forward have been in preparation for some time, principally as a response to the difficulties faced by the eurozone.

Mr Juncker was reflecting the views put forward two years ago in the EU’S Five Presidents report, which charted the way to a fully integrated EU– a superstate in all but name. This seemed to have been sidelined by the events of 2016 – the refugee crisis, the Brexit vote, the eurozone slowdown and the rise of anti-eu parties across Europe. For a time the EU seemed reconciled to just muddling through.

But the defeat of populist movements in the French and Dutch elections, and the expected victory of Angela Merkel in Germany, have revivified the project. The UK would have had to confront this reality at some point in the next few years, because even if we had stayed in the EU on its periphery we would not have been left untouched by developments. Whatever we have said and done over the years the EU has moved inexorably in a direction with which Britain has never been comfortable. Brexit is the consequence.

The Commission – which will probably be backed by Mrs Merkel, should she win another term as German chancellor – is now making ready for the final stages of the integrationist project in which all the member states are in the euro, internal frontiers have been removed and all major decisions are taken at the centre.

Mr Juncker envisaged a future with a finance minister for the EU (one who will have to do Germany’s bidding) and a single president. The EU would be extended into the Balkans along with the borderless free-movement zone. There would be a European army with its own budget, independent of Nato structures, and an end to all opt-outs. Laughably, Mr Juncker maintained that this represented a programme of democratic reforms, because small decisions will be devolved to member states while the big ones would be taken centrally.

Such an ambitious plan will only be deliverable if the major EU countries are behind it. Just as it took an alliance of Helmut Kohl, François Mitterrand and Jacques Delors to push through the Maastricht agenda setting up the EU and the single currency, so this will require the total commitment of Mrs Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.

But the difference now, compared to 1992, is the huge expansion eastwards to encompass countries like Poland and Hungary, which see the EU principally as an economic vehicle to help to drive their capitalist escape from decades of Soviet-style centralism. These countries may not look benignly upon Mr Juncker’s hubristic declaration that the EU’S problems have suddenly disappeared and that the only response is “more Europe”. He might be in for a nasty shock.

If Britain had voted to stay, Mr Juncker would now be encouraging the UK to participate fully in the EU project and the arguments against doing so would have been weaker. His speech has vindicated last June’s decision. Yes, we may regret the difficulties of extricating ourselves from Europe, most of which are caused by the Commission’s desire to make the UK suffer for abandoning the EU. But Mr Juncker has at least ensured we will not regret leaving.

On the other hand, the EU at least knows where it wants to go. We need to map out our future, too.

The EU has moved inexorably in a direction with which Britain has never been comfortable

The integrationist project will ensure all member states are in the euro and all decisions are taken at the centre