Syrians kicked out of Ghouta facing uncertainty hundreds of miles away
THE group in control of the last rebel bastion near Damascus yesterday appeared to have agreed a deal for its fighters to surrender to the government or quit the Eastern Ghouta enclave, Syrian state media said.
Jaish al Islam has been defending the city of Douma against a months-long onslaught by government forces.
If confirmed, this marks the end of their revolution and an end to largescale conflict in the enclave. But the future of the people displaced from Ghouta is far less certain.
Some 25,000 residents have now left for Idlib, the largest remaining rebel stronghold, under a deal agreed between opposition groups and the regime’s Russian allies. Deals have played out across the country during the course of the seven-year war.
The government uses the term “reconciliation” when discussing them, the opposition prefers “forced repopulation”.
On the long bus ride out of Eastern Ghouta, Mosallam al-baset had time to think about what sort of future awaited him hundreds of miles away in Idlib, in the north of the country.
The photographer was leaving the only place he has called home, having been forced to choose between either living under the regime or exile.
But Mr Baset and the others evacuating the rebel enclave this week after their defeat to Bashar al-assad’s forces would be subjected to one final humiliation before they did.
“The regime took us on a detour through cities of Alawites [the Muslim sect Assad belongs to] so they could show them who they kicked out of Ghouta,” said the 31-year-old father-ofone, speaking to The Daily Telegraph by phone. “People swore and put two fingers up at us as we drove past. It was then I realised that I was probably never coming back.” It will be the first time he has ever been to Idlib, a province in the north-west of Syria, which had been unremarkable before the war but for its proximity to the Turkish border.
As one of four designated “de-escalation” areas agreed at peace talks last year, Idlib province is supposed to be a safe zone. But Syrian and Russian jets continue to hit civilian targets.
Indiscriminate bombing and ground campaigns have turned Idlib – under effective siege since Turkey closed the border – into a kill zone.
Its newest residents fear that once Eastern Ghouta falls, it is only a matter of time before it is Idlib’s turn. Except this time, there will be no more deals.
From the start of the uprising, Assad claimed that it was not a popular protest and branded all those who opposed him terrorists. Over the course of several years, he succeeded in making that a reality in Idlib.
The province had been controlled by the Free Syrian Army, a relatively moderate rebel group backed by the US. With each deal that was agreed with rebels, in eastern Aleppo and elsewhere, more extremist elements moved in. Responding to the changing situation on the ground, most interna-
‘People swore and put two fingers up at us as we drove past. It was then I realised that I was probably never coming back’
tional organisations pulled out, leaving civilians – many of whom are ideologically opposed to the extremist groups – without adequate aid.
“I fear living under the jihadists,” said Mr Baset, who has found a temporary place to stay at a friend’s house with his wife and eight-month-old son. “But in Syria people have no say in where they live any more.”
The importance of Idlib lies in its location. Near the road linking Syria’s second city Aleppo to the capital Damascus, reclaiming it would be a major boost to Assad’s legitimacy.
It is also adjacent to the coastal province of Latakia, a regime stronghold that is home to the president’s clan.
But the Syrian regime is not the only party looking to control the province.
Any battle there will be complicated by Turkey.
Having sympathetic rebels in control and not a hostile regime suits Turkey, which backs the opposition.
Idlib could become a bargaining chip. Russia, unlike its client state, cares little for the fate of the province beyond what can be traded in return with Turkey. Moscow has also enjoyed improved relations with Ankara and as a result has become more willing to strike mutually beneficial agreements.
“Idlib is a contest between Russia and Turkey,” said Nicholas Heras, a fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.
If a political deal is not reached for Idlib, it could see one of the bloodiest battles of the war. Densely-packed urban areas and a high concentration of foreign-backed militants mean any fight would be protracted as well as costly for both sides.
“There is a strong risk of Idlib becoming the next offensive,” said Arnaud Quemin from Mercy Corp, one of the largest aid organisations in Syria. “That would be a nightmare scenario. The humanitarian fallout would be unthinkable.”