Editorial Comment:
These are dangerous times, perhaps more so even than during the Cold War. Then, superpower tensions could be eased by hotline calls and occasional arms reduction summits. The ever-present threat of nuclear confrontation helped to concentrate the minds of the world’s leaders on peace not war.
But many of the old certainties have gone with the erosion of ideological battle-lines, to be replaced by regional flash points, each with the potential to spill well beyond their boundaries. The capacity of the Syrian civil war to draw other nations into its ghastly vortex has been apparent for some time; but the risks are greater than ever.
The conflict now has Nato, Russia, Israel, Iran, Turkey (a Nato member but acting unilaterally) and Saudi Arabia all involved to a greater or lesser extent, just at the very time when diplomatic communications with Moscow have broken down for other reasons, including electoral interference, cyber espionage and the Salisbury poisoning.
The apparent chemical weapon attack on Douma, a suburb of Damascus, at the weekend has brought matters to a head. The Americans had previously warned President Assad to expect retaliation for breaching international law in this way and President Trump has already said there will be a price to pay. He needs to make good on that threat otherwise it is meaningless. But the response needs to be surgical and proportionate.
Israel has seemingly taken the opportunity to attack the Tiyas airbase in central Syria, which it has targeted before. Although this is by no means Israel’s first incursion into the civil war on selfdefence grounds, matters are complicated by Russian and Iranian backing for Assad. Indeed, Tehran claimed four Iranian nationals were killed in the raid on the airbase.
On a visit to Denmark yesterday, Theresa May said that, if chemical weapons were used, then the Syrian regime and their backers must be held to account. But how exactly? Russia denies a gas attack has even taken place and has threatened to retaliate if action is taken against Assad’s regime. With diplomatic missions being stripped down in the tit-for-tat expulsions of recent weeks, the scope for misunderstandings leading to a military clash is growing by the day. An end to the civil war would clearly help calm matters; but since Assad is winning, he will no longer brook a political solution when he can use brute force to crush remaining rebel strongholds.
Moreover, President Trump’s eagerness to pull out American forces has given the impression that the US has no long-term strategy for the region. Indeed, beyond pummelling Isil and punishing Assad for breaching chemical weapons “red lines”, Washington does not wish to get involved in the Syrian imbroglio and Russia knows it. The role of power-broker was ceded by Barack Obama in 2013 when he backed away from a threat to take military action in response to a sarin gas attack carried out by Assad’s air force.
As Lord Hague reminds us on the opposite page, that was the baleful consequence of a vote in the British parliament against military action in Syria. Mrs May’s tough talk yesterday is unlikely to be backed up by British military action unless she can reverse that position.
It is telling given this background that the first leader President Trump contacted to discuss the West’s response was not Mrs May but Emmanuel Macron of France, whom Washington presumably sees as a more reliable partner. France was also the lead country calling for the UN security council to meet to debate the Douma attack and its consequences. When Paris is the first port of call for an American president seeking an ally, the Syria conflict has shifted the balance of power in more ways than one.
Given the parlous state of Uk-russian relations, it might be tempting to let other European countries take the lead. But if America and France are to act, Mrs May needs to ensure that the UK is not left on the sidelines unwilling to join in the punitive action she has rightly identified as necessary.
Assad will no longer brook a political solution as he can crush remaining rebels using brute force