The new realities in the Middle East

As the audience cheered and applauded at the opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem yesterday, dozens of Palestinians were being killed in clashes with Israeli Defence Forces on the Gaza border. There is no point in pretending the two were not connected. The relocation of the embassy was always going to provoke a reaction, especially on the 70th anniversary of Israel’s foundation. This does not mean the decision was wrong; but there was never any likelihood of its passing without protest. The loss of life is appalling, but Israeli soldiers found themselves trying to prevent thousands of demonstrators from breaking through the border, egged on by Hamas. Had they got through, there could have been even greater carnage.

Donald Trump’s decision to move the embassy – albeit just part of it for the time being – from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem fulfils a promise he made on the election campaign trail. As he pointed out, his predecessors in the White House reneged on similar pledges. Everyone should know by now that when President Trump says something, he intends to do it.

But this is about more than domestic American politics. Mr Trump was accused of wrecking the Arab-israeli peace process with his approach; and yet there is no peace process and has not been for years. From President Clinton’s support for the Oslo accords and the handshake on the White House lawn, through George W Bush’s administration and on to Barack Obama, American leaders have tried and failed to secure progress on one of the world’s most intractable disputes.

Mr Trump evidently hopes that, by confronting the Palestinians with the reality of Israel’s continued existence, he might change the dynamic. Moreover, the Arab states no longer see a settlement of the Palestinian grievance as their most pressing foreign policy aim. For Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, the priority is confronting Iran, just as it is for Israel.

The president’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner has been working up a new plan with the backing of key Arab leaders that will relieve the ghastly isolation of Gaza and open up the prospect of another peace initiative based around a twostate solution. It will be a while before the Palestinians have faith in any Us-led process but their options are running out. They need to come to terms with the new realities on the ground.