Force Croatia to point of fatigue

One reason I am confident about England’s chances is that Croatia’s players looked exhausted at the end of extra-time against Russia. England will have spotted that and a central part of the game plan will be to make their opponents chase the ball.

For every sprint they make early on, a small gap will appear late in the game. That is why the passing approach favoured by Southgate is key. Jordan Pickford in goal has great distribution and Kyle Walker in the back three has the pace and ability to drive forward. They can help force Croatia to work incredibly hard to win back possession. Every member of England’s side knows how to pass the ball under pressure.

I see no signs of fatigue from England’s key men, which is hardly surprising as they were able to rest players against Belgium and, with the games won, could play at half-pace for 45 minutes against Panama and 25 versus Sweden. They ran 29km less than Croatia in the last round – a huge amount. If they play sensibly and make Croatia chase the ball, they will finish the stronger. That is why I think England will win 2-1 with the winning goal in the last 20 minutes.