The president speaks much sense on Brexit

Donald Trump was asked to comment on Brexit at yesterday’s impromptu Nato press conference. He replied, “It’s not for me to say”, before going on to say a lot – and much of it made sense. “Brexit is Brexit,” he said. “The people voted to break [their relationship with the EU] so I would imagine that’s what they would do.” Now, however, it appears as if Britain is “getting at least partially involved back with the European Union”. Reading the White Paper on the “future relationship” between the UK and the EU, that is indeed what it looks like.

The very release of the paper was shambolic. Reporters were briefed before MPS; the House had to be suspended in the middle of a ministerial statement so that copies could be tossed out to the backbenches like Frisbees. The text was clearly written so that Angela Merkel would approve, with no sensitivity for a pro-brexit audience. The paper is described as “a package that strikes a new and fair balance of rights and obligations” – the language of membership renegotiation not a declaration of independence – and pledges to “reflect the UK’S and the EU’S deep history, close ties, and unique starting point”. This amounts to retaining as much of the status quo as possible.

There is a gulf between the Government’s rhetoric and what this paper will mean in effect. As Mr Trump pointed out at his press conference, immigration is the biggest issue across the West, which is presumably why a promise to end free movement appears seven times in the White Paper. But it comes with so many caveats (such as visafree migration for tourists and workers) that we all know what it will mean in practice: free movement in so many practical circumstances. Likewise, interference by European courts is officially out, but given that disputes over Eu-made regulations will be influenced by EU courts, we will still essentially be under the thumb of Brussels. And, as Jacob Rees-mogg argues, the Facilitated Customs Arrangement is so one-sided in implementation that we would effectively become the EU’S tax collectors in a fix that favours trade on the continent. That the White Paper represents not a final deal but the opening bid in negotiations only adds to Leavers’ looming sense of a sell-out.

Someone in Number 10 should leaf through Mr Trump’s book The Art of the Deal. The president is not an angel. He is obviously not universally admired. Critics say he tends to pick a fight, declare a victory and move on, while his opponent quietly goes back to their old ways. For instance, the commitment that Mr Trump says he extracted from Nato members to raise their military spending yesterday was only verbal, and is disputed. Nevertheless, his handling of Nato has been admirably dogged: identify the key issue, make your demand, refuse to budge until it is met. Yes, America can afford to behave that way because it contributes so much to Nato. Unlike the US, Britain is not a superpower – but then again, neither is the EU. The UK can afford to be stubborn in negotiations because we have a massive trade deficit with the continent, we are Europe’s premier military power and Theresa May insists that we could refuse to pay the £39 billion earmarked for the divorce settlement. As she likes to say: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”

Mr Trump’s visit is fortuitous, whether protesters like it or not. It reminds us that Britain’s future prosperity does not rest in being shackled to a continent that it is declining in economic importance and where many countries are not even willing to pay for their own defence. The future is America, the Commonwealth and the developing world, where a lightly regulated and low-taxed British business sector will flourish.

The special relationship, about which Mr Trump has been refreshingly enthusiastic, demonstrates the reach of Britain’s influence and its history of spreading both wealth and the rule of law. The United Kingdom has always been a global nation. The low aspirations of the Government’s customs plan do not reflect that powerful legacy.