Brexit plan fails on politics and policy
One week ago, Number 10 tried to pull off a political stunt. It invited the Cabinet to Chequers, took away their phones, confronted them with a customs plan they had barely seen and said that, if they resigned over it, they would be walking home. And that is how a prime minister turns a policy mistake into a political disaster.
The Chequers summit wasn’t just about government policy on the EU, it was about reasserting Theresa May’s authority. One week later, both are in pieces. The foreign secretary and Brexit secretary quit (among others); backbench Leavers are in rebellion; our letters pages have been full of fury at the customs plan. And the visit of Donald Trump, which was supposed to cement the special relationship and Britain’s global postbrexit role, has only highlighted the problems with Mrs May’s EU strategy. In a newspaper interview, Mr Trump said a trade deal with the US was now unlikely due to the flaws in her plan. In a press conference at Chequers yesterday, he first rowed back from that verdict, then confirmed it, then defined exactly what Mrs May has got wrong.
The paradox is that the President of the United States is more enthusiastic about Brexit than the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This is no surprise. Mrs May is an honourable, dedicated public servant, but her vision of Brexit is a damage limitation exercise. Civil servants and the Treasury have clearly told her that safeguarding the status quo in the European goods trade is what really matters; everything else is a devil to be buried in detail. The European courts can still have their say; there will still be some form of freedom of movement. Britain will pay £39 billion for the chance to go on obeying EU rules and regulations.
Mr Trump can see this. Under pressure at their joint press conference, he had a go at insisting that a trade deal with the US might be possible under Mrs May’s plan, but his objections remained as plain as day: “We would be dealing with the EU instead of dealing with the UK.” If the leader of the country we wish to make a deal with says it is unlikely, then it sounds unlikely. Next week, Mrs May faces MPS’ amendments to her customs bill, and Mr Trump has added substance to the arguments of those who want a so-called hard Brexit.
A chief problem, say the Prime Minister’s critics, is that she showed her hand too early. The customs plan might have been endurable if it were the final outcome, but Mrs May played it as her opening bid, and the EU is bound to squeeze more concessions out of her. She might reply that she has played the only hand that domestic politics will allow. There is no majority in Parliament at present for walking away without a deal, therefore Britain must enter negotiations with a reasonable bid that the Europeans will be open to and around which a domestic consensus can be built. If the Europeans reject said offer, the country is more likely to accept walking away.
But the customs plan Mrs May cooked up still contains too many obfuscations and too many departures from the promise of the EU referendum. Moreover, there has been no effort to build a consensus. Threatening Cabinet critics with a lonely cab ride home is no way to achieve collective responsibility. Not handing out the White Paper in proper time to MPS is no way to debate its merits. The briefings and the insults resemble the worst of the Cameron years, when Number 10 pitted itself against the Tory grassroots in an attempt to win floating voters. Mrs May must not go down that road. While the charge of betraying Brexit is heavily disputed, it is gaining currency – and could damage the Conservatives for decades. Right now, it looks as if Mrs May might have won over a handful of Tory Remainer rebels at the cost of dozens of Brexit-supporting MPS. If she wants to put that to the test of a confidence vote, she would be brave indeed.
The country is tired of crisis politics. It wants to move on. It wants politicians who talk honestly and openly about where things are going and what is to be done. Mr Trump divides opinion, it’s true, but his visit has raised good questions that needed to be addressed and which the Government has yet to fully answer. It would be very wrong to think that it can proceed towards Brexit in a cloud of uncertainty and recrimination.