Chequers has made a Labour win possible

With Mrs May’s popularity at an all-time low and Ukip off life support, the Tories must act to stay ahead

Summer brings an opportunity to reflect, and the Conservative Party has much to reflect on. While MPS might focus on the forthcoming turmoil in Westminster, they would do well to take a moment and think about the people who will ultimately decide their fate: ordinary Conservative voters.

The Conservative electorate today is fundamentally different from the one that supported the party before 2016. One effect of the referendum and Prime Minister May’s “Brexit means Brexit” strategy is that it made this following more working-class, more pro-brexit and more opposed to free movement.

This reflects the way in which, last year, the party hoovered up votes from ex-ukip voters and blue-collar Britain, enjoying its best showing among workers and non-graduates since the days of Margaret Thatcher. Its average vote share rocketed by 15 points in the most pro-leave seats but fell by 3 points in the most strongly pro-remain. It is quite possible that Conservative victories in Mansfield and Stoke-on-trent and defeats in Battersea and Enfield Southgate could yet lead to a fuller realignment.

Even if not, the transformation of the Conservative electorate explains why, among most of these voters, the Chequers proposal went down like a lead balloon. Just 16 per cent of people who voted Conservative last year feel that this vision of Brexit would be “good for Britain”. More than half reject the idea that it respects the referendum result. The risk for the Tories is that unless there is a change of course, they could face a full-blown backlash or, just as bad, an outbreak of mass apathy.

Consider how the health of the party has changed in only a few weeks. Before Chequers, in June, its share of the vote in the polls averaged 42 per cent, the same level of support that it won at the election last year. But since Chequers that has slumped to 37 per cent. In the month before Chequers, the Conservatives led Labour in every poll but one. But since Chequers Labour has been ahead in every poll but three (which had them tied).

There are other warning signs. Theresa May’s popularity among all voters has plummeted to a new low, lower even than her rating in the aftermath of last year’s election. And among Leavers, her supposedly core supporters, the downward spiral is even more dramatic, crashing from +18 before Chequers to -23 after it.

As my colleague Sir John Curtice points out: “Those voters do not just think that the Prime Minister has been incompetent in developing her Brexit stance but they are also having doubts about whether the Government is in favour of the kind of Brexit they want in the first place.” Mrs May is losing support precisely among those groups that have become key to her party’s fortunes.

All this is clearing the way for Jeremy Corbyn. Before Chequers, when voters were asked who would make the “best prime minister”, Mrs May held a comfortable 12-point lead over Mr Corbyn. But since Chequers it has been cut in half. Meanwhile, the Conservative lead over Labour on the economy is down 4 points, on managing Brexit down 7 points and on immigration down 8 points.

Labour only needs a swing of less than 2 points to become the single largest party in Parliament. Since Chequers, Labour has enjoyed its strongest lead in the polls (+5 points) since early 2018. A Labour majority government is entirely plausible.

Many Conservative voters are already open to other options. Last week, no fewer than 44 per cent said that “none of the political parties reflect my views”, while a striking 68 per cent said they would be likely to vote for a new party “on the political Right, committed to leaving the EU”. Ukip has been taken off life support. Before Chequers, the party averaged 3 per cent, but since Chequers it has passed 6 per cent. For angry conservatives, defecting to Ukip is no longer an unknown leap into the dark. They have done it before.

Some people say that, come the next election, voters will have moved on from Brexit to other issues. Such people misunderstand the magnitude of this issue, how it has cut through our political landscape, becoming a filter through which voters view other issues and threatening a more radical realignment. Make no mistake: the tectonic plates underpinning Tory support are on the move, and when MPS return in the autumn they will have to act fast to ensure that they do not fall through the cracks.

Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics at the University of Kent and co-author of ‘National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy’