A government’s job is to prepare not scare

Scaremongering about Brexit is dangerous. It encourages Brussels to play tough, it spooks markets and it worries voters. Blame lies not only with Project Fear but also a government that has failed to defend its own policies or assert its confidence in them. Instead we have heard about risks to card payments and pensions; Northern Ireland having its electricity cut off; even shortages of food and medicine. It is the Government’s job, of course, to prepare for all eventualities – and no one denies that a no-deal Brexit would be an almighty task. But how on earth have the Tories allowed only the worst-case scenarios to become the dominant narrative?

We’ve been here before. In the run-up to the EU referendum, Project Fear told Britons that a mere vote to Leave – not even Brexit itself – would crash the economy. The softest of the Treasury’s predictions warned that unemployment would rise by 500,000, the economy would shrink by around 3.6 per cent and the public finances would sink into greater deficit. Instead, unemployment has fallen, the economy has grown and the country’s finances enjoyed their biggest surplus for July in 18 years. Even where the Treasury came closer to the truth, its hypothesis was misjudged: a fall in the value of the pound had mixed, not wholly negative, consequences, helping exports and tourism. Moreover, Project Fear’s predictions assumed that there would be no response from government and business, as if both would sit by passively and watch Britain take its punishment – rather than, say, cut taxes or shift investment from Europe to developing markets.

The original Project Fear had the dubious excuse that it was trying to influence a vote. That contest of ideas is now over. Britain voted to Leave and the focus of politicians and business should be on making Brexit work as smoothly as possible. This is technically the Government’s position – and yet this new bout of scaremongering is not only designed to raise fresh doubts about a complete Brexit but is actually coming from inside the Government itself. Ultimately, the suggestion that the Treasury would be flummoxed by a no-deal outcome reflects poorly on the Treasury. Where are the plans to stimulate growth, push forward infrastructure projects, deregulate or tempt investors away from the continent? Rather than bashing Brexit, it’s time Whitehall and the Tory Remainers got on with their jobs.