Turkey fears a ‘bloodbath’ as Idlib truce hopes founder
Fears over use of chemical weapons by Syrian regime as Russia and Iran refuse to back ceasefire in province
TURKEY failed to convince Iran and Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Idlib yesterday, paving the way for a likely assault by the Assad regime on the Syrian province in the coming days.
The United States also said it had “lots of evidence” that regime forces were preparing chemical weapons for possible use in Idlib.
Speaking at a major summit in Tehran, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, warned his Russian and Iranian counterparts that an attack on the densely populated province would lead to a “bloodbath” and an unsustainable surge of refugees into Turkey.
However, the summit’s final communique made no mention of a ceasefire and when Mr Erdoğan made a last-minute effort to insert the term into the text he was publicly rebuffed by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.
Mr Putin said a ceasefire “would be good” but he could not commit to one because there was no guarantee that terrorist groups in Idlib “will stop shooting or stop using drones with bombs”. Mr Putin said: “The fact is that there are no representatives of the armed opposition here around this table.”
The outcome of the Tehran summit – with no clear peace deal reached – seems to indicate that the forces of President Bashar al-assad will press ahead with their planned assault, supported by Russian air power.
Russian or Syrian regime jets launched several airstrikes on southwest Idlib yesterday. A jihadist fighter and a shepherd were killed by the blasts, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
There are more than 2.5million civilians in Idlib and the United Nations has also warned of a humanitarian catastrophe if Assad’s forces attack.
The three powers did not fully close the door on the chances of a diplomatic resolution in Idlib, and their joint statement said they had agreed the Syrian war could only end through a negotiated political process”.
Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, said fighting in Idlib was an “unavoidable” part of the Syrian regime’s mission to take back control of its territory, but he warned Damascus against employing “a scorched-earth policy”.
Mr Erdoğan said an attack would “result in disaster, massacre and humanitarian drama”. He said: “Millions will be coming to Turkey’s borders because they have nowhere to go. Turkey has filled its capacity to host refugees.”
Ultimately, Russia will have the most say in whether the attack goes ahead. but Mr Putin struck a hawkish note, saying the Syrian regime “has a right and must eventually take under control all of its national territory”.
Meanwhile, Jim Jeffrey, Washington’s special envoy to Syria, said the US was seeing indications Assad’s forces were readying chemical weapons. “There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared,” he said, adding that the US is committed to keeping troops in Syria over the longterm, partly to counter Iran’s presence.
Western countries have promised they will strike Assad’s forces if chemical weapons are used. Mr Putin repeated a regular Russian claim that rebel forces might stage a chemical attack to draw Western strikes down on Assad’s troops.
During a meeting of the UN Security Council in New York, the UK named individual Syrian regime commanders around Idlib and warned them they could face future war crimes charges if they went ahead with the attack.
“These commanders, these units, will be held accountable by the international community,” said Karen Pierce, the British ambassador to the UN. “There are more babies in Idlib than there are terrorists and I think that should give those engaging in military action pause for thought.”
‘There are more babies in Idlib than there are terrorists ... that should give pause for thought’
In Idlib itself, large crowds gathered in rebel-held cities across the province to wave the green and black flag of the Syrian revolution and to call for the international community to protect them from assault.
“We are living in black days,” said one woman in Idlib. “It is full of fear and expectations and rumours. We hear about massacres in other places and worry that it might happen in Idlib.”
Turkey has 12 military outposts across Idlib and many civilians believe that the Turkish military presence offers a sliver of safety, as Russian and regime forces would not want to risk accidentally hitting Ankara’s forces.