Will May and the Tories become the latest victims of Ireland’s mire?

Once again this divided island that has convulsed our politics holds the key to the great issue of the day

Standing on the walls of Londonderry last week was to be reminded once again of the pivotal role Ireland has played in the history of these islands. Built during the reign of James I, they are one of the few examples in Europe of an almost intact city enclosure: a remarkable survival considering the upheavals Ireland has seen in the meantime. During the Troubles, the walls were mostly inaccessible because of the network of security screens and gates installed to stop sectarian violence.

Now they are one of the Northern Ireland’s top tourist attractions and a good place to start if you want to understand the complexities of politics and religion on the island. It was here in 1688 that 13 apprentice boys prevented the capture of the city by shutting the gates against the armies of James II. The privations of the subsequent siege, in which thousands died, and the defiant cry of “No Surrender”, became integral to the identity myths of Ulster protestantism.

There is an exhibition in the splendid Guildhall about the “plantation” of Protestants that took place in the 17th century, effectively colonising the northern part of the island which had hitherto been the most troublesome to the English Crown. My own family came over from Scotland with these settlers. The seeds of future conflict and strife were sown, not least when the Glorious Revolution ushered in draconian anti-catholic laws that prevailed longer in Ireland than elsewhere in the UK.

The fates of Ireland and Britain have been intertwined for so long that it is easy to imagine we are forever locked in a mutual embrace from which there is no escape. A few years after the end of the Great War, Winston Churchill lamented that even after empires had fallen and the entire map of Europe had been changed, “the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone” had emerged once again to dominate British politics.

“The integrity of their quarrel is one of the few institutions that has been unaltered in the cataclysm which has swept the world,” he told the Commons in February 1922, opening a debate on the partition treaty. “It says a great deal for their power to lay their hands upon the vital strings of British life and politics, and to hold, dominate, and convulse, year after year, generation after generation, the politics of this powerful country.”

Little changes. Peace may have come, after a fashion, to Northern Ireland, even if communities remain separated by walls and fences. But once again it is to Ireland that we must look for a resolution of the great UK political issue of our time: Brexit.

Suddenly, we are in to the end game of a process that began when Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty 18 months ago. On Monday, Michel Barnier said an agreement was possible within the next six to eight weeks, a timetable that each side has been working towards for months. Much of the work has been done and there is to be a final effort in Salzburg next week to ensure Mrs May has something vaguely Chequers-like to put to Parliament in November.

Whether she can gather enough support to push it through is the big unanswered question; but by the time the vote is held there will be just a few months left to Brexit Day, during which time a Withdrawal Agreement Bill needs to get through Parliament. Confronted with such a tight timetable and a take-it-or-leave it offer from the EU, many of the seemingly entrenched positions currently being espoused by the various factions will start to crumble.

But the big outstanding issue that could scupper everything is the Irish border. Driving across it last week after a trip up the west coast of Ireland (or the Wild Atlantic Way, as it is now branded) was no different to entering Dorset from Hampshire. There is no physical frontier whatsoever, just a sign that says “Welcome to Northern Ireland”. Last September, in order to move the stalled Brexit talks on, the Prime Minister agreed that this state of affairs would continue after the UK leaves the EU.

She seeks a deal that allows free and unfettered trade to continue. But if this is not achieved she has committed the UK to ensure no border paraphernalia exists. How this can be done without staying in a customs union is the great conundrum, which is why Mrs May will agree to some form of arrangement that Brexiteers will have to accept or precipitate the constitutional crisis about which William Hague wrote on these pages yesterday.

Some argue that the Irish government was wrong to hand this matter over to the EU to be used as a negotiating lever. But since the border with Northern Ireland is also the EU’S only land frontier with the UK it was inevitably going to be critical in Brexit talks, not least because of the commitments made by the UK in the Good Friday Agreement. The big mistake was to agree to sorting it out before the final trade deal.

Travelling around Ireland it was striking how different the country feels now compared to 30 years ago. Not only are the well-maintained and often empty roads testament to the largesse of the EU’S structural funds (paid for by net contributors like the UK), but use of the euro has engendered a sense of Europeanism – notwithstanding the mess Ireland found itself in after adopting the currency when the Celtic Tiger’s roar was silenced by the financial crash.

Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach, has been denounced in Britain for cosying up to Brussels. But the Irish have made their call: their relationship with the EU now matters far more to them than their historic connections to Britain, even if much of their trade is still with the UK. They intend to keep Mrs May to her commitment on the “backstop”, though Mr Barnier’s recent ideas to “de-dramatise” the issue may yet point to a way through, allowing for goods to be checked without necessitating border controls.

But keeping drama out of the Irish border issue is not easy. Over the years, events in Ireland have preoccupied dozens of governments, wrecked political parties and destroyed glittering careers in the process. Sorting it out and fulfilling the commitments previously given will require compromises that may see the Tories and Mrs May the latest to be sunk in the Irish mire.