Philip Johnston:

The Prime Minister’s TV interview showed that she has outmanoeuvred her Brexiteer Tory rivals

Theresa May’s appearance on Panorama in a dazzling white suit was almost as startling as Gandalf ’s after he defeated the Balrog in The Lord of the Rings. The grey wizard has gone; now you’re dealing with the real thing. To hard-line Brexiteers, however, she is more of a wicked witch, having manoeuvred them into a corner from which there is no escape.

Anyone tuning in on Monday night expecting to see a cowed, frazzled Prime Minister beaten into submission by the responsibilities of Brexit will have been confounded. If anything, she seems to have drawn some sort of energy from the relentless struggle.

Moreover, she will not be budged now from the path she set out at Chequers. Those who know her well (and let’s face it, we are not exactly talking multitudes here) identify single-mindedness as her most potent characteristic. Some might call it stubbornness. But whatever, Mrs May takes an age to make up her mind and will not be moved when she has.

In her interview with Nick Robinson, the Prime Minister demonstrated her determination to plough inexorably on towards what Boris Johnson on these pages called “a car-crash Brexit”. She will travel to Salzburg today on the latest leg of this two-year quest for an agreement that will fulfil the referendum mandate while tying the UK as closely as possible to the EU market.

Mrs May is adamant she will succeed and I am sure she will. There will be a deal. There was always going to be a deal. The Government wants one; the EU wants one; indeed, Article 50, under which this process is taking place, requires one. “A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”

That’s clear enough; and since the EU is nothing if not a rules-based organisation, it will “conclude an agreement” with the UK. Only if Mrs May pulls back will the whole edifice collapse and Britain face the prospect of crashing out. But Parliament is not going to let that happen and everyone knows it. Indeed, so much political capital is being expended on Chequers or some watered-down variant of it that a sudden volte-face just weeks before the matter is supposed to be settled looks highly unlikely.

There was a telling moment on Panorama when a group of Tory MPS voiced their concerns about Chequers across the table from Mrs May and the Government chief whip Julian Smith. The Prime Minister said she understood it was hard but now was the time to redouble their efforts. Mr Smith said they should not make any travel plans for late November and December, at which everyone laughed, nervously and knowingly.

That will be the point when Mrs May puts her deal to Parliament in what promises to be the biggest peacetime bust-up since the Commons faced down the Lords in 1911. It is just 10 weeks away. How time flies.

Perversely, the fact that neither stay-in Remainers or no-deal Brexiteers are satisfied with this state of affairs convinces Mrs May she is on the right track to strike a middle-way agreement that effectively reflects the division in the country.

What we are now seeing is a carefully choreographed exercise designed to let her claim some sort of domestic triumph without compromising the EU’S cherished fundamental principles. We can expect to hear more of this at Salzburg as European leaders seek to protect the integrity of the EU while seeking to maintain good future ties with the United Kingdom.

British diplomats report a willingness in the EU to pull this off with talk of “imaginative solutions” and “de-dramatising the Irish border”. All the signs are there, which is why the hard-line Brexiteers are becoming increasingly agitated as the denouement looms.

We should not forget, either, that she has the backing of the Cabinet. True she lost two ministers in David Davis and Boris Johnson; but it suited her purposes to see them go since it helps persuade the EU that she is wedded to the softest Brexit possible.

No one else has left, not even those who campaigned for Brexit like Michael Gove and Chris Grayling. Provided she retains the backing of the Cabinet, it is hard to see her being prised from office and, even if she were, it is far from clear how that would change anything.

For all the noise we hear from the European Research Group, the majority of Tory MPS in the centre are largely quiet and ready to support whatever deal Mrs May strikes.

It will all come down to the vote in Parliament. Labour will oppose anything Mrs May agrees with the EU because they want to force her out and trigger an election. So do the SNP, the Liberals and other smaller parties. What the DUP will do is anyone’s guess but Mrs May will need her party’s full backing to get the deal through.

Are the Brexiteers really going to vote this down and risk what happens next? They might if they really think that would result in no deal and falling back on World Trade Organisation rules. But far more likely alternatives are a general election or another referendum, especially if Labour’s conference next week commits the Opposition to a second vote. The further option of going back and renegotiating is for the birds.

When the crunch comes it will be hard for the likes of Boris Johnson to row back from the absolutist positions they have adopted in recent days. The way out for them is for Mrs May to make the support for her deal an explicit vote of confidence.

This was what John Major did to get the ratification of the Maastricht treaty through the Commons in 1993. Eurosceptics who had joined forces with Labour to defeat him fell into line a day later when it was made a confidence matter.

For Mrs May this would be the nuclear option; but it is hard to see even the most determined Brexiteers voting to bring down their own government, especially if she indicates that once the deed is done she will step aside and sail off into the sunset.