Want to pick the winner? Then forget rankings

Daniel Zeqiri analyses the stats and tries to discover the best blend for a Ryder Cup team

Individual excellence

America possess the winners of six of the past eight majors and their average world ranking is stronger than Europe’s, but all is not lost for Thomas Bjorn’s team.

Of the eight winning Ryder Cup teams this century, the average number of major wins in the two-year cycle before the event is only 1.5 – discounting Americans such as Lucas Glover and Rich Beem, who failed to qualify. In six of the past eight, the team with more recent major success have lost.

We may be witnessing a changing of the guard – the 2014 and 2016 Ryder Cups went to major form.

Only twice since 2000 have the team with the best average ranking triumphed: the biggest upset in this regard came in 2002, when a US side containing half the world’s top 10 lost at The Belfry.

To reinforce what a red herring world rankings can be, look no further than 2004, when Europe had just one top-10 player and an average ranking of 35.75. They duly triumphed 18½ to 9½ on US soil. Not since Europe at the K Club in 2006 have a team prevailed with fewer than three top-10 players.

Experience and youth

Bjorn has five rookies to Jim Furyk’s three, with worrying parallels to Hazeltine two years ago when a Europe team with six debutants were beaten.

The “too many rookies” theory needs a caveat, however. In the past eight Ryder Cups, three were won by the team with more rookies, three by the team with less, while there was a parity of rookies on the other two occasions.

While the average number of rookies in a winning team this century is 3.6, having more is not necessarily a barrier to success. Colin Montgomerie led six rookies to victory in 2010 and America’s six in 2008 were key to a home triumph, while Europe’s 2004 win involved five.

More important than the gross number of rookies is how that figure relates to the opposition – since 2002 no team with a “rookie difference” of more than two have won. In five of those eight Cups, the team with more Cup matches have won. The average number of past matches in a winning team is little more than 100, a figure both sides clear in France.

The perfect picks

Both Bjorn and Furyk have sided with experience in their captain’s picks: Woods, Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson. There is evidence for the value of advancing years. Europe’s four best- performing groups of picks were 1987, 2004, 2006 and 2010.

They had another thing in common: a player who had appeared in four or more Ryder Cups, so Bjorn has ticked that box.

However, three of those sets of picks had a player making his Ryder Cup debut, something Bjorn’s choices lack. In 2016, rookie and pick Thomas Pieters top-scored for Europe.

America have also benefited from youth in their wild cards. Only five US wild cards have scored three points or more – four were under 40.

Woods and Mickelson’s failure to qualify rendered youthful selections unlikely this year. Will the captains rue their conservative choices?