Turing method that cracked Enigma to help in cancer fight

THE method devised by Alan Turing, the Second World War codebreaker, to crack Enigma could be used to detect cancer earlier, experts have said.

Researchers at Edinburgh University believe Turing’s mathematical techniques could be used to help measure the effectiveness of existing diagnostic tools.

At present, the accuracy of diagnostic tests is assessed using statistical techniques developed in the 1980s, but the method is unable to gauge how useful a test could be in determining a person’s risk of developing a disease.

However, experts at the university’s Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics believe the tests could be improved by studying Turing’s methods.

Working at Bletchley Park during the war, Turing came up with the technique used to break the German Enigma machine. His approach investigated the distribution of so-called weights of evidence – which establish the likely outcomes in a given situation – to help him decide on the best strategy for cracking the code.

Applying the same principle could potentially aid the development of personalised treatments, a study published in the journal Statistical Methods

has revealed. Prof Paul Mckeigue, of the institute, said: “Most existing diagnostic tests for identifying people at high risk of cancer or heart disease do not come anywhere near the standards we could hope to see.

“The new era of precision medicine is emerging, and this method should make it easier for researchers and regulatory agencies to decide when a new diagnostic test should be used.”