Immigration won’t guarantee the deal

Theresa May hopes that, this weekend, European leaders will sign off on both the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the UK’S future relationship with the EU. After that, she faces a colossal battle to get her deal through Parliament. As the Government ramps up its campaign to court wavering MPS on both sides of the House, the atmosphere could prove acrimonious. Yesterday, the Government faced criticism after awarding a knighthood to Eurosceptic Conservative MP John Hayes in the run up to the crunch Brexit vote, although the soon-to-be Sir John has said that he still needs “a lot of persuading” to back the Government’s deal.

Mrs May is likely to emphasise what she probably sees as the most persuasive element of her deal: the ability to control immigration. No 10 will tell MPS that if they also want to control immigration, as they claim to, they must vote for the Withdrawal Agreement. There are plenty of Remainer Labour MPS who represent Leave constituencies, and the Government will surely advise them that voting against a deal that controls the borders will look bad. Labour’s more rational members understand the salience of low-skilled migration in working-class areas: even Ed Miliband promised “controls on immigration” and plastered the phrase on a mug.

But immigration is only one element of Brexit. Sovereignty matters, too, and both the Agreement and Declaration give a not-insignificant role to European courts. The Union is critical, and the backstop would treat Northern Ireland differently; it would also trap us in a disadvantageous customs arrangement and limit free trade. Deregulation has long been a dream of Eurosceptics, and yet Clause 79 of the Declaration commits Britain to maintaining a “level playing field” in a great swathe of regulations.

The political calculus behind making immigration the central issue is transparent, but risks, yet again, misunderstanding the fundamentals of Euroscepticism. The Conservative argument for Brexit was always that we should leave the EU to regain control over our borders, yes, but also to take back control of our laws and rules – to liberate our economy and trade freely with the rest of the world. In other words, Mrs May might find that Tory opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement does not vanish the moment she bangs the immigration drum.