‘10,000 beds needed during winter crisis’

THE NHS in England needs 10,000 additional hospital beds to keep patients safe, the British Medical Association (BMA) has said.

The doctors’ union said that in order to keep bed occupancy at safe levels over winter, hospitals needed to boost capacity, and warned that the coming winter period “could be the worst on record” for emergency departments as it predicted a rise in the number of people attending, longer waits and more patients needing hospital admissions.

New analysis from the organisation suggests that between January and March next year:

 The total number of emergency hospital admissions will rise to more than 1.6 million from 1.5 million this year;

 The number of A&E patients waiting over four hours at major emergency departments could increase to over one million;

 Once a decision has been made to admit someone, the number of socalled “trolley waits” of four hours or more will rise from 226,000 to 238,000. In the worst-case scenario it could rise to more than 300,000.

Meanwhile, its analysis of bed occupancy found that last winter occupancy peaked at 95.1 per cent.

It has been suggested that if occupancy is above 92 per cent, the deterioration in emergency care standards begins to accelerate, the BMA added.

It said that high bed occupancy rates are often a factor in the decision to cancel planned operations, and can also delay patients moving from the emergency department to a ward.

To bring bed occupancy down to the recommended minimum safe limit of 92 per cent, the NHS in England will need to use 5,000 “escalation beds” opened last winter, and will need an additional 5,000 general and acute beds.

Dr Rob Harwood, chairman of the BMA’S consultant committee, said: “This winter could be the worst on record for front line emergency care departments, with a BMA analysis suggesting hundreds of thousands of patients will be left either waiting to see a doctor for an assessment or stranded in cramped corridors on a hospital trolley waiting for a hospital bed to become available. A key part of this problem is the lack of available beds within the NHS system.”