In these final days of May, Operation Stop Boris is already in full swing

The Tories don’t have a plan for what or who might follow the PM, and that could be her saving grace

What happens if Theresa May loses the vote next week? “That question is not for me,” she said yesterday, and a great many people in her party agree. If she suffers a landslide defeat on a deal in which she has vested what remains of her authority, it ought to be the end for her. What happens next should be a question for her successor. And given that we could be just days away from a leadership bid, the Tories have already started to plot.

The Prime Minister is expected to suffer one of the largest defeats in political history. “Ideally, we lose this by a safe margin, between 40 and 200 votes,” one Cabinet member tells me. If it’s less than 40, his logic runs, Brussels would expect her to call the vote again. If she loses by 200 votes, the party itself might be ruined. But if it’s 100 votes, even the Maybot could not pretend (as she likes to say) that “nothing has changed”. She would resign, or be prevailed upon to do so. Her party would then have a very short period of time to decide what happens next.

The Tories need to determine what type of Brexit they want, as this will decide the leader suited to delivering it. A small but growing number, for example, now believe the safest option is “Norway for now”, whereby Britain joins Norway in the European Economic Area. We escape the EU’S political project, enjoy frictionless trade – but stay in the same trade and regulatory orbit and accept free movement.

Mrs May defines Brexit by border control, so she’d have to go. The Norway plan would need the support of dozens of Labour MPS, so a newelected Tory leader couldn’t embark on such collusion. An unelected caretaker would be enstooled: perhaps David Lidington, her de facto deputy. But for this plan to work, every Conservative MP would have to agree. If even one objects, and runs for the leadership, a full contest is triggered.

One former Cabinet member envisages the contest being condensed into political speed-dating, with MPS being asked to hold votes every three hours until they reach two candidates. The next day, hustings would be held in both Plymouth and Bristol, with two a day until they reach Inverness – so that the whole process is wrapped up in 10 days (Christmas post permitting). Then the new leader immediately pursues a no-deal Brexit while saying Brussels can always make a better offer.

And what might Conservative Party members want? Someone who can make Brexit look deliberate, who can project the sense of optimism that drove the referendum vote, who sees an opportunity rather than a crisis to be mitigated. Someone who, above all, has the ability to articulate – to the country and the world – the kind of open, globally-minded Brexit that we will pursue. Someone capable of the sort of sentiments that are expressed with such cheerful effervescence in this very column every Monday.

I have stopped trying to understand why Boris annoys so many Tories, but he currently seems to have more enemies than any other MP has friends.

The Stop Boris faction is perhaps the largest leadership group in parliament, and met last week to compare notes. They intend to announce that, if he becomes leader, they would immediately resign the Tory whip in protest. They claim to have about 20 MPS in their political suicide pact, enough to deny their party a majority. So they’d say to their colleagues: back Boris, and lose power.

They are now ready to go. One of the Stop Boris group even met his constituency party chairman last week to seek approval for his sitting as an independent MP. Permission was granted, he says, because his local party members hate Boris even more than he does.

Such claims puzzle Boris, but they don’t deter him. He regrets not pushing ahead with his last leadership bid and won’t pass the chance up this time. He is not a schemer, which is precisely his problem. He hasn’t bothered to butter anyone up, which is seen by his enemies as arrogance.

The Stop Boris lot don’t have their own candidate, but this is not how Conservative Party leadership contests tend to work: it’s all about who hates whom most. The winner tends to be the one with the least enemies. Or the last person standing when the shooting finally stops.

Next in the firing line is Sajid Javid, the Home Secretary, who is seen as a capable choice if there is a no-deal Brexit. A Remainer who has run more government departments than any other contender, he is an instinctive

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Tory radical and would have no qualms about a large stimulus package to offset the worst effects of a no-deal Brexit.

It would be quite something for the Conservatives to be led by the son of Pakistani Muslims, a former banker whose life story embodies what Michael Howard once called the “British dream”.

In the sincerest form of Tory compliment, however, there is now a Stop Saj campaign. MPS say that his delivery is wooden, that he’s too provincial, that he is a back-story in search of a front-story. “He won’t improve. He sounds like what he is: a banker,” says one Cabinet member.

Then comes Dominic Raab, who has been laying out his own manifesto for what to do next. As a former Brexit secretary, he believes the damage of a no-deal can be reduced by threequarters if the right action is taken. His supporters say that he’s also a Brexiteer (unlike Javid, who backed Remain) and we have learned the hard way that this project can only be completed by those who believe in it. Which would rule out Jeremy Hunt, who was Britain’s longest-serving health secretary, and might yet end up holding the leadership parcel when the music stops.

Throughout all of this, one fact shines through: the Conservatives still don’t really have any other plan. Their indecision might allow Mrs May to win her vote next week: Christmas miracles do happen. Or she may convince Brussels to give us a means of getting out of the backstop: if she is granted an “eject” button, her deal would pass.

Even now, it would be brave to bet against Mrs May surviving. Especially if her party still can’t agree on what, let alone who, should come next.