Take back control of the timetable
On the third day of the debate over the Government’s EU withdrawal deal, MPS heard from the politician who many regard as its principal architect – Philip Hammond, the Chancellor. He has been determined from the outset to ensure the closest possible relationship with the European Union single market and customs union, believing that it is in the interests of British business. Mr Hammond said the deal reached last month was the only one on offer, was good for the country and the idea of renegotiating at this stage – the current policy of the Labour Party – is “simply a delusion”. If he is right, then the Prime Minister is in peril. It is apparent that this deal will not go through, however hard Theresa May seeks to persuade the Commons.
It might make sense to delay the vote rather than unleash all the uncertainties that will come with a heavy defeat next Tuesday. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers, says the timing here is less important than the substance, and he is right. If the Prime Minister could find some way of guaranteeing that the UK would not be potentially locked for good in the so-called backstop, she might have a fighting chance. But Mr Hammond says this is not on the cards; and the Prime Minister is ploughing ahead.
Is this wise? All along, Mrs May has boxed herself in with a series of artificial timetables. At the outset of the talks, she agreed to resolve the Northern Ireland issue as part of the divorce settlement rather than linking it to the future trade deal, a sequencing that has proved fatal. She announced a date for triggering Article 50 without any real idea of where she wanted to end up. She called a general election at which she lost her majority and handed the balance of power to the one party for whom the Irish context was crucial, the DUP.
All these errors were compounded last December when she agreed the backstop that is causing so much difficulty now, in order to be able to move on to the next stage of the negotiations before Christmas. Mrs May could postpone the vote and go to the EU summit next week to seek some concession that might yet save her. She could take control of the timetable rather than be buffeted by events. If the vote goes ahead, defeat looks inevitable; and given the mistakes she has made so far it is hard to see Mrs May surviving it.