A second referendum on leaving could be May’s plan B

MPS loyal to the Prime Minister believe a second ballot is ‘least worse’ option if her deal fails tomorrow

A RADICAL plan for a second referendum that does not include the option to remain in the EU is being discussed as a possible “Plan B” for Theresa May if she cannot get her Brexit deal through the Commons.

Some May loyalists believe that a second referendum might be the “least worst” of several grim alternatives facing her if MPS block the deal either tomorrow or in a postponed vote.

David Lidington, her de facto deputy, Greg Clark, the Business Secretary and David Gauke, the Justice Secretary, are among those who believe a second referendum is increasingly likely.

Mrs May could not, however, risk calling a referendum that could end up stopping Brexit altogether, having staked her party’s entire reputation on delivering the result of the 2016 public ballot. Instead, some ministers have discussed a plan to give voters the choice between Mrs May’s Brexit deal and a no-deal Brexit to break the current Parliamentary deadlock.

One Government source said: “If Parliament can’t decide between this deal, no deal or no Brexit, letting the people decide might be the only way forward.

“The Conservatives would be destroyed at the next general election if they brought about a referendum that ended up with Britain staying in the EU, so this would be a valid alternative.

“You can legitimately argue that remain doesn’t need to be on the ballot paper because that issue has already been settled. We voted to leave in 2016.

“Now people could be given the choice of how we leave.”

The biggest hurdle to such a referendum choice would be winning the backing of Parliament, which would be likely to reject a public vote that did not offer remain as an alternative.

It would also risk alienating the 48 per cent of voters who chose remain in 2016, many of them Conservatives.

Mrs May has consistently said there will be no second referendum, but allies believe that if she is backed into a corner by Parliament, the public would have sympathy for a plan that both delivered on Brexit and broke the current deadlock in Parliament.

Mr Lidington and Mr Gauke, who are both Remainers, have privately been sounding out MPS from all parties to gauge whether there is a Parliamentary majority for a second referendum or even for a Norway-style Brexit deal. Fellow Remainers Mr Clark and Amber Rudd, the Work and Pensions Secretary, are also taking a keen interest in the possibility of another referendum.

Several ministers have already indicated that they will press Mrs May to suspend collective Cabinet responsibility in the event of another referendum so that they can campaign for Remain if it is a choice on the ballot paper. Mr Gauke yesterday urged MPS to back Mrs May’s deal, writing in The Observer that: “Rejecting the deal to pursue a so-called “People’s Vote” comes with great risks. It is by no means guaranteed to be a silver bullet.

In fact, it is more likely to further entrench division and lead to at least a further year of damaging uncertainty.”

However, like other ministers, he is increasingly focusing on what Mrs May’s Plan B should be in the increasingly likely event that she loses the vote on her deal.

An ally of Mr Gauke said: “You have to consider Plan B and try to work out where Parliament could come together around something other than Mrs May’s current deal, and so far that is looking more and more as if that will be a second referendum.” Other ministers, however, remain vehemently opposed to another referendum.

One minister said: “It’s a terrible idea, worse than a general election. As soon as you allow a referendum you open it up to all sorts of alternatives.”

However, ministers are struggling to make their ideas heard after Mrs May shut up shop over the weekend. “She is in the bunker,” said one source. “She is not giving anything away.”

Concern is growing among some Cabinet ministers that too little preparation has been done for a so-called managed no-deal Brexit, in which temporary agreements could be put in

‘You can legitimately argue that Remain doesn’t need to be on the paper because that has already been settled’

place to allow trade to continue while talks carry on.

Around 100 MPS, including 35 Tories, are preparing to publish a Parliamentary motion calling for a vote on the terms of the UK’S exit immediately after Mrs May’s deal is voted down, if the vote goes ahead and she loses.

The amendment, tabled by Tory MPS Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen, will be attached to any attempt by Mrs May to bring back her deal for a second vote in the House of Commons.

Julian Smith, the Chief Whip, told ministers at a meeting on Thursday that Mrs May would lose the vote if it went ahead tomorrow. However, the Whips’ Office is still trying to persuade MPS to back the deal, on the assumption that the vote goes ahead.

Some are reported to have told backbench Tory MPS that Mrs May will agree to step down in the spring and let a new prime minister take over the Brexit process if her deal is approved by Parliament.

Tobias Ellwood, the Defence Minister, said he would back the deal – but indicated that unless it was passed quickly he might support a second referendum because the original decision to leave may “no longer represent a reflection of current intent”.

Other ministers – including Ms Rudd – have suggested that a Norway-plus deal keeping the UK in the single market and a customs union could be a “plausible” alternative if Mrs May’s plan is rejected.