The PM is playing a high-risk game

Theresa May used what might conceivably have been the last Sunday of her premiership to issue a final warning that unless the deal she has concluded with the EU is passed by Parliament tomorrow, the country will be in “uncharted waters”. She resembles the captain of a ship plotting a course into unknown seas without a map and in a direction that most of the crew consider dangerous. We understand her political difficulties, but is it responsible of a helmsman, whether of a vessel or of a government, to wilfully place either in peril and to offer no other option but disaster?

Yet this appears to be the Prime Minister’s considered position. Her deal seems to have no chance of getting through the Commons and everyone, including No 10, knows it; yet despite predicting “grave uncertainty” if that comes about, Mrs May is determined to plough on, though she may yet reverse engines.

Is there method in this apparent madness? Boris Johnson, who more than anyone was responsible for persuading the country to vote for Brexit in 2016, believes there is a way out, though it entails the Prime Minister losing the vote heavily first.

That would then demonstrate once and for all to the EU that Parliament and the country will not accept the vassal status that is on offer in connection to the Irish backstop proposal. She could then go to the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday armed with what is effectively a reverse mandate. Mrs May would be able to say that her best endeavours to achieve consensus around what the EU maintains is a final settlement have failed and it is time to reset the talks.

Brexiteers have been encouraged by comments made by Romano Prodi, the former EU commission president, at the weekend about the bloc’s capacity for flexibility in adversity. Mr Johnson indicated that, were the rest of the EU to agree to insert a clause allowing the UK unilaterally to leave the backstop, then he would support the deal as would most Brexiteers and the DUP. It would then get through and the UK would leave as planned on March 29 next year. Perhaps the ship has to founder on the rocks before the EU wakes up to the fact that everyone will suffer unless it is dragged off.

If this is the strategy, it is a high risk one. Ministers insist this is the final deal and there is nothing else on offer. The Brexiteers simply do not believe this and consider it to be a bluff which should be called.

On the other side are Remainers eager to reverse Brexit, and who see the approaching cliff edge of “no deal” as a way of doing so, by extending the timetable for departure to allow for another referendum or the revocation of Article 50. An expected ruling today by the European Court that the UK can simply stop the clock and stay in will encourage these people.

But if we end up with no Brexit what will that do to our politics? The riots in France on Saturday by the so-called gilets jaunes movement may appear quintessentially Gallic but are an example of what happens when the people feel their politicians are simply not working for them or even listening to them. Gina Miller, the campaigner who fought for MPS to have a say on triggering Article 50 two years ago, said on the BBC yesterday that the intention was to ensure the reassertion of parliamentary democracy; yet it has been found wanting. If Mrs May loses tomorrow she may resign or go to Brussels on Thursday and seek concessions.

But if she fails, then by January 21 either she or a new prime minister is required by law to return to the Commons with a plan of action. MPS voted last week effectively to take over the negotiations at this point; but to what end? Their job is to enact the referendum result. Whatever the result of tomorrow’s vote, that is what must happen.

Despite predicting ‘grave uncertainty’ if the deal fails to get through, Mrs May is determined to plough on

The riots in France are an example of what happens when people feel their politicians are not listening to them