Bogeyman Blair is a blessing for we Brexiteers

Nothing has changed since 2016 to warrant a second referendum, whatever faded Remainers claim

I’m going to this year’s Christmas party as Tony Blair: I’ll get on everyone’s nerves and then refuse to leave. Theresa May must’ve thanked her lucky stars when Mr Blair spoke out for a second referendum last week. He’s elite, he’s distrusted by Left and Right, he’s the perfect Remainer bogeyman, and he helps No 10 push its message that the only choices are Mrs May’s deal, no deal or a second referendum. After all, what Brexiteer in their right mind would give Tony Blair what he wants? Best stick with Mrs May’s plan: avoid economic chaos, defy the Remainers and plough on with the great British backstop.

Except that it’s a false choice. For a start, the phrase “no deal” is a bit of a misnomer. There would be lots of little deals to avoid problems – in aviation, say – while any government worth its salt would spend the money now to ensure there aren’t any bottlenecks. Warnings of disaster are a self-fulfilling prophecy: if you say there’ll be queues at Dover and refuse to arrange alternative trade routes because you want to scare MPS straight then, duh, we’ll wind up with queues at Dover, which would be disastrous. That said, even if the economists are right and a no-deal scenario will hit hard, I can’t quite believe the shrillest predictions because we’re so used to those in the know getting it wrong (I include newspaper columnists in that).

Incompetence is a cross-party phenomenon. It was Blair and Brown who brought us Iraq and the credit crunch. Mr Blair also promised a referendum on Europe that he never delivered, and in 2004 said that if the people were given a choice and voted against a new EU constitution, “they vote no. You can’t then start bringing it back until they vote yes.” He’s since changed his mind, of course. No one has contributed as much as Mr Blair to the death of trust in so-called experts.

Remainers now say “trust the public” and put Brexit to a People’s Vote, another misnomer. Who voted the first time if not the people? Cats? Robots? The cast of Eldorado? It would be an unnecessary vote, because we’ve already had one, and a disingenuous proposal, because the Remainers only want it on the assumption that they’d win. I’m not so sure they would, which makes Mrs May’s warning that it must be prevented at all costs – including backing her rubbish deal – a tad overwrought.

For the record, a second referendum certainly should be avoided. The one in 2016 tasked Parliament with taking us out of the EU, and if MPS fail to do that – if they keep returning the question to us – then we’re going to have to tear up our constitution and start over again.

The whole process, starting with a second referendum, could turn ugly. Even violent. I foresee angry abstentions; I can imagine Remain winning on a low turnout and things going downhill from there. Look at Scotland: defeat in the independence referendum did not kill nationalism or the SNP, it galvanised both and undermined good government. If Brexit is reversed, get ready for decades – decades – of radical politics with the full force of Ukip thrown in. Me, I’m going to move to Italy. As I’ve always said, if I must live in an EU country then it might as well be one with nice weather. All things considered, though, if I were a Remainer I wouldn’t be too confident of victory. Why? Because nothing has fundamentally changed since 2016.

The economy is OK. European migration is down, but rest-of-theworld migration is up. There’s been no fall in our international clout: foreign countries are still willing to accept our aid. “All of us know so much more now than we did two and a half years ago,” says the Green Party’s Caroline Lucas, arguing for a second vote, and yet if we’ve learnt anything it’s that the Leavers were right. Remain insisted that the EU wasn’t that embedded in British life, but we now know how many of its rules we live by and how difficult it is to escape them. We know that the EU’S leadership are bullies: we’ve been patronised, insulted, almost extorted.

Plus we’ve learnt that parts of our pro-eu political class would actually reverse a popular decision they don’t approve of. We’ve learnt that the problem isn’t just Mr Blair, the most visible caricature of a Remainer, it’s also the MPS and civil servants who prefer government by Brussels to having to run things themselves.

Holding one plebiscite after another until they get the result they want is the ultimate example of that disregard for national, democratic accountability. Be under no illusion: if Ms Lucas lost a second referendum, she’d immediately demand a third one because “we all know so much more now than we did 10 minutes ago”.

There is no sound case for a second referendum, only a strategy for reversing Brexit, and the hollowness of the cause is reflected in its leadership. Who is the face of Remain? Nick Clegg has gone off to work for Facebook; every Tory of significance is either a Brexiteer or signed up to Mrs May’s deal. That leaves Tony Blair. Tony. Blair. Imagine a Christmas party in which he is not simply the most annoying guest, but the only guest, and you have the present campaign to Remain.