Labour leader’s closet Leave stance could bring us closer to no-deal exit

One of Westminster’s most enduring truths is that whenever someone talks about the need for “a show of strength”, they are about to do something stupid and self-destructive.

This time, the display of virility was arranged by a handful of Labour MPS who support a second referendum – a group that is expected to argue for such a vote more vociferously now that Jeremy Corbyn’s no-confidence motion against the Government has failed. Yesterday, in the run-up to the vote, they posed for photos outside Portcullis House, clutching a public letter calling on the Labour leader to support a so-called People’s Vote.

The official People’s Vote campaign knows full well that they are still on the back foot. As it stands, they do not have the numbers to secure a re-run and know that their best hope is to wait out the clock and hope that MPS prefer a second vote to a no-deal exit. That’s why there was no amendment to deliver another referendum put by the cross-party campaign to Mrs May’s doomed deal. And that’s why, had the official campaign been consulted on yesterday’s stunt, it would have advised that it not go ahead.

But it wasn’t – and as is always the case with a show of strength, even those MPS with the sense to know they were participating in a major blunder had no choice but to go along with it. The practical effect is to remind Westminster that even within the ranks of the Labour party there are only 82 MPS willing to call publicly for the question to be reopened.

All of which makes life a little bit easier for Corbyn. He doesn’t want another Brexit vote, because he is by instinct a Eurosceptic and believes that committing will mean he loses the next election by isolating many Labour voters who voted Leave.

Even if Labour’s formal position were to change, that would not create a parliamentary majority for a second vote – in no small part because there is so little enthusiasm among Tories.

There is also the fact that Labour party activists do not place a high priority on Brexit. Corbyn is aligned with them on most issues so they are relaxed that, on the question of a second vote, he and they are at odds.

Does that mean that Corbyn is free to do what he wishes on Brexit? No, but it isn’t a Remainer revolt that he should fear. His big challenge is the pressure to take decisive action to prevent a no-deal Brexit. A large number of Labour MPS want a Brexit deal done and dusted and hope that, if they vote for an unpopular softer Brexit deal next week or next month, they will be able to persuade local party members that they did their best to trigger an election and had no choice but to sign up to avoid no deal.

The Labour leader must quickly decide how his political objectives are best-served. He might be tempted to present himself as a mature politician who will sign up to a softened version of May’s deal in the national interest. Or he might dodge taking a proper stance and frame himself as the victim of Labour MPS undermining him. So while Remainer Tory MPS strategise to stop Brexit, closet Leaver Corbyn could bring us closer to no deal.