A no-deal Brexit died when Mrs May’s deal fell

There is no chance that the EU will make concessions now, so prepare for a softer exit or not leaving at all

The House of Commons has confidence in the Government, but no confidence in its most important policy. In that respect, nothing has changed. And yet everything has changed. Theresa May can no longer play for time. She cannot hold a second vote on her deal. And she cannot stop Parliament wresting control of Brexit.

No-dealers continue to fight, but they increasingly resemble Teruo Nakamura, the Japanese soldier who went on fighting the Second World War until 1974. Any hope they have of bringing about a no-deal Brexit has gone. So, too, has any chance that Parliament can force Brussels back to the negotiating table.

True, before Tuesday’s vote, there were some signs that Berlin might help to pass the deal at the second attempt. Downing Street probably over-interpreted Angela Merkel’s commitments to Theresa May on Sunday, but before the vote Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign minister, suggested talks could be reopened. His predecessor, Sigmar Gabriel, said: “We Europeans… should keep seeking compromises.” And the CSU, Merkel’s coalition partner, proposed bilateral Anglo-german talks to break the stalemate.

But after a crushing defeat in the Commons, the EU knows Theresa May’s deal is dead. And they know that when Parliament takes control, Brexit can only get softer. This is what Europhile British politicians have been telling Brussels all along. It is what the Speaker confirmed when he tore up the Commons rulebook and sided with pro-eu MPS. And it is what MPS are openly planning next.

On Monday, thanks to the last Grieve amendment, the Prime Minister must set out her Plan B in a motion. A cross-party group of MPS will seek to amend that motion – no doubt supported by the Speaker

– to introduce a new Brexit law. This law would give Parliament, through the Commons Liaison Committee, the power to impose an alternative Brexit policy, which could include a second referendum, on the Government. If the Commons cannot agree a plan, the law would force the Government to delay Brexit by extending the Article 50 process.

The plan might fail. Among its early advocates, there are divisions between MPS who support a second referendum and those who favour a Norway-style relationship with the EU. And we don’t yet know whether Labour MPS will be whipped to back it, as they were for several previous rebel amendments.

But even if the plan fails on Monday, a variation of it – or a Commons mandate to deliver an alternative Brexit policy – will probably be imposed on the Government in the next few weeks. And with these amendments comes the likelihood of further amendments, as we have seen before. Some MPS fear a law allowing for the extension of Article 50 might be changed to permit revocation, and the abandonment of Brexit altogether.

So there is little reason for the Europeans to offer Britain any compromises. Merkel told the Bundestag yesterday that “there cannot be any renegotiations”, and other leaders are holding that line.

Leavers, meanwhile, cannot turn the tide. Whatever no-dealers say, the Government will not allow Britain to leave without a deal. Philip Hammond made this clear in his call to business leaders on Tuesday night, and it is not in the PM’S biological composition to embrace a no-deal Brexit. Even if she tried, ministers would resign from the Cabinet and across Government, and she would face further defeats in Parliament.

This is why the no-dealers’ demands are becoming increasingly desperate. They failed to change the Government’s policy, they failed to remove the Prime Minister, and they will fail to stop legislation that softens Brexit in the Commons. Some Leavers are now calling for the Government to prorogue Parliament – effectively suspending the Commons until after Brexit – to ensure we leave without a deal. This is a policy worthy of a Latin American dictatorship, and it is never going to happen.

But what pro-europe MPS are pushing is, if anything, more undemocratic. They will deliver us a second referendum – perhaps with a loaded question or an expanded electorate including foreign nationals and 16-year-olds – to try to stop Brexit, or a form of departure (Norway-plus, perhaps) that amounts to Brexit in name only.

The MPS who have denied for the last two years that they were trying to overturn the referendum result – who complained at being called “mutineers” as they mutinied against the policy they once promised and “saboteurs” as they sabotaged the people’s decision to leave the EU – are showing their true intent. And the consequences of their actions will run deep.

They risk deselection by their Conservative associations. They face electoral punishment by angry voters. And they risk turning a party split into a permanent rupture. They might not care, they might be excited by the idea of joining a new centre party, but they are poisoning the well of our politics. Brexit voters will neither forgive nor forget their betrayal.