Why another France collapse is on the cards
Lack of leaders and a fragile mentality leave England’s opponents ripe for a late implosion
Icannot see any way in which France will win tomorrow unless they go into the last 10 minutes against England with a lead of at least eight points. Their defeat by Wales might have been a particularly spectacular explosion, but losing a lead in the later stages has become a constant theme.
Since the start of 2017, France have lost five games against tier-one opposition having either led or been level as the clock ticked past the 70th minute – against England on their previous visit to Twickenham, Ireland and Scotland in last year’s Six Nations, South Africa in November and now Wales in Paris.
It is a staggering collection of near-misses and is three more than any other side. That suggests both a lack of leadership and mental frailty, and you do not have to be a genius to work out that they are susceptible again this weekend.
The eight players on the bench boast a total of 25 caps between them, which is a 10th of those on England’s bench, with Dan Cole and Joe Launchbury returning to bring their total to 249.
When you consider that six members of France’s starting XV have 11 caps or fewer, then I shudder to think how few experienced players they will have on the field in those vital final few minutes.
The reason this matters is that those periods are when the players, rather than the coaches, have to problem-solve. When I was playing, I always divided a game into four periods – 0-20 minutes, 21-40, 41-60 and 61-80.
The periods between 0-20 and 41-60 belong to the coaches. They set the game plan and select the team, and they make adjustments at half-time depending on what they have seen on the field.
But in the periods from 21-40 and 61-80 minutes, the players are very much out on their own. I can guarantee that if you stopped the game after 75 minutes and asked players what they had been told at half-time, then few of them could tell you. Things have evolved so much that the instructions and advice may bear little resemblance to what they are playing in front of them.
That is when on-field leaders need to take command. Assuming they are still on the field, then you know Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs and George Ford (the latter an excellent bench option) will be telling their England team-mates what to do and where to go as the game enters its death throes.
Who fills that role for France? Your guess is as good as mine. It was staggering to hear Sebastien Vahaamahina say this week that he was unaware he was the captain in the final quarter against Wales and only realised when Wayne Barnes, the referee, asked him which penalty option he preferred. It summed up the casual approach the French have to what is often the most vital period of the game.
I cannot imagine Eddie Jones making a similar mistake. The Australian has made a huge deal about calling his substitutes “finishers”, which shows how highly he values them. England have generally been excellent in the final stages of games under Jones, with their record over the past two years bearing comparison with any team as their fitness and organisation shine through.
Their replacement options – particularly Ford, Cole and Launchbury – suggest a level of calm and nous that you would not expect the French to bring, no matter how talented they are. And when players lose their calm, they make rash decisions. France’s downfall against Wales started with Yoann Huget’s horrible error that allowed George North to score and you could see the collective brain freeze that followed, culminating in Vahaamahina’s disastrous pass that North snaffled.
Mistakes generally lead to more mistakes as desperation builds. It is a part of the game England have been able to manage and the French clearly have not. It could be their downfall at Twickenham.
We always used to enjoy scenario-based training that ensured we knew what to expect on a match day. The coaches would say: “Right, you’re in your own 22, four points down and there’s five minutes left.” We would then have to find a way to get to the other end of the pitch to score the try that won us the game.
When you found yourself in that situation, the time spent training for just that eventuality was time very well spent.
It is also something you can only do if you have a fairly settled team, which France clearly do not. That is why it is a part of the game England have been able to manage and the French clearly have not.