The options open to Theresa May this week

Q Will MPS vote for a third time on Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

A The Prime Minister told MPS last week that she would hold a third “meaningful vote” – or MV3 in Westminster shorthand – by this Wednesday.

It is possible the vote could take place as soon as tomorrow, but only if Mrs May believes she has persuaded enough MPS to switch sides and back the deal. Last week, the deal was rejected by a 149-vote majority, meaning Mrs May needs 75 MPS to switch. Yesterday, Liam Fox and Philip Hammond both made it clear that the third vote will not go ahead if defeat seems certain.

Q Can the Prime Minister get enough support to make it third time lucky?

A There are at least 20 MPS who rejected the deal last week who have either confirmed or indicated they are now prepared to back it, but that falls a long way short of the magic number for Mrs May. Downing Street has been in constant talks over the weekend with Tory rebels and with the DUP in the hope that they, too, can be persuaded to switch sides. Getting the DUP’S 10 votes is seen as the key, because a significant number of Tory Brexiteers would almost certainly follow the DUP’S lead, including Jacob Rees-mogg, leader of the European Research Group of Tory Eurosceptics.

Q What will happen if Mrs May wins the vote?

A She will ask for Article 50 to be extended for up to three months – to June 30 at the latest – when she attends a summit with the other 27 European leaders in Brussels on Thursday. The EU will agree to the short “technical” extension to enable Britain to pass the necessary legislation, and Brexit will happen before the end of June.

Q And what if she loses?

A Mrs May has already told Parliament that if her deal is rejected for a third time, a “much longer” extension will be needed, meaning Britain will have to hold European Parliament elections in May, almost three years after voting to leave the EU and all its structures.

A two-year delay has been mooted, but the EU27 must unanimously agree to an extension. If they do not, Britain could yet leave the EU with a no-deal Brexit on March 29.

Q What if she decides not to hold the vote?

A Mrs May will head to Brussels and ask for a lengthy extension to Article 50. It is possible she could then hold the vote next week, in the hope that with a long extension already agreed with the EU, Brexiteers, the DUP and Labour MPS in Leave-voting constituencies will finally lose their nerve and back the deal, on the basis that rejecting it could lead to a delayed Brexit with a worse deal than the one currently on offer, or no Brexit at all.