International pariah

The referendum confirming the annexation of Crimea by Russia five years ago today marked a significant shift in the geopolitical relationship between Moscow and the West. For Vladimir Putin it was a sign that he could face down Nato with total impunity.

The Russian leader regarded the sanctions which still exist as a small price to pay to flex his revanchist muscles. He was subsequently emboldened to interfere in the Syrian conflict and to disrupt democratic processes in Europe and the US. However, while Mr Putin may have reinforced his strong-man reputation in Russia, increasing his domestic popularity ratings at the time to around 80 per cent, elsewhere it deepened suspicions about his intentions. The annexation cost the Kremlin any residual benefit of the doubt about the threat posed to Eastern Europe.

Ukraine has refused to buckle in the face of this aggression and of the proxy war taking place in the east of the country. Moreover, Nato has belatedly woken up to the reality of what it is facing, even if some members still expect the US to pay for their defence. What has become apparent to Mr Putin is that he is not going to be allowed to get away with any more attempts to undermine countries on the borders of Russia and to which it claims some historic title, such as the Baltic States.

No one wants a conflict with Russia; but a confrontation becomes much more likely unless the Kremlin clearly understands that its aggrandisement will be resisted. After Crimea, Mr Putin thought he could get away with anything, even assassination attempts abroad. But Russia has become an international pariah, trusted by few and isolated as a consequence of his leadership.