In playing both sides, the PM has managed to upset everyone
Theresa May’s offer of a short extension has angered her party and may well be rejected by the EU
Once again, Theresa May finds herself walking the Brexit tightrope as she requests another extension to Article 50, but succeeds only in upsetting everyone and satisfying no one. The shorter-than-expected date of June 30 was designed to reassure Brexiteer backbenches at home that she remains determined to take the UK out of the European Union “without undue delay”, but she was nonetheless pilloried for “abandoning” her party.
Across the Channel, where Donald Tusk is pushing for a one-year extension, the same pledge was intended to convince EU leaders that she merited being granted more time, but instead came across as both unconvincing and politically too clever by half.
In the context of the Brexit blamegame, where neither side wishes to be responsible for no deal, that choice of June 30 looked like a cute move designed to allow Mrs May to say she was being forced into a one-year extension offer, rather than taking the decision on herself.
There might have been a time when such things could be choreographed between London and Brussels, but not any more. After four months of parliamentary failures and backtracking on the Irish backstop, Mrs May has zero reserves of trust or goodwill.
The argument for the extension also looks weak. Last month EU leaders asked Mrs May to “indicate a way forward” if she wanted more time, but the best she could come up with was a promise to keep holding cross-party talks and, if these continue to fail, yet more indicative votes.
In short, she wants to keep trying, but after two years of deadlock in London there is little confidence among EU leaders that Mrs May’s plan will bear fruit. More likely, worry EU diplomats, Mrs May will fall and a leadership election, then a general election, will ensue. More chaos, more uncertainty.
France’s Emmanuel Macron is among those chiefs who remain to be convinced.
His spokesman quickly warned that any assumptions that Mrs May would be granted a one-year “flextension”
when EU leaders meet next Wednesday were “premature”.
Still, Mrs May did make three very clear concessions to Brussels designed to offset the concerns that the “way forward” was really just another way to stand still.
Firstly, she conceded the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be re-opened, so any extension period will not become a space in which to renegotiate the dreaded Irish backstop.
Secondly, she pledged to make preparations to hold European Parliamentary elections on May 23, so that there would be no chance of undermining the legal integrity of the next Parliament if the UK did not exit by May 22.
And thirdly, she promised to uphold the duty of “sincere co-operation” with other EU members, so that any extension period is not used perniciously to muck up the functioning of the bloc.
In doing so, Mrs May indicated her willingness to put on the strait-jacket that EU leaders were already fitting her up for as a condition for granting any extension.
The calculation is that this compliance is enough for EU leaders to overlook the lack of clarity on the way forward.
This calculation is probably sound. If EU leaders boot out the British
‘After four months of parliamentary failures and backtracking, Mrs May has zero reserves of goodwill’
when their leader is acceding to all their demands and struggling to find a compromise at home, they will find themselves taking the blame.
But still, the legal reality is that the rights of an EU member, even a departing one, cannot be curtailed. This means that even if Mrs May signs up to a “good behaviour” compact, there is no guarantee that her successor will abide by it.
And as she totters on the edge of political oblivion, it is Mrs May’s potential successor as Tory party leader that the EU fears, particularly when they hear Jacob Rees-mogg suggesting on Twitter the UK should be “as difficult as possible”.
Predictably, it was not long before Guy Verhofstadt of the European Parliament took the bait, warning EU leaders contemplating extending the moribund Brexit process to “be careful what you wish for”.
Whether Mr Macron chooses to allow himself to be similarly goaded remains to be seen, but given the need for unanimity among the EU leaders to agree to any Article 50 extension, Wednesday night’s discussion could prove a tempestuous affair yet.