Walk In The Mill can rise to ultimate challenge Marcus Armytage
Testing conditions could suit once-wild debutant Tiger Roll aims to match Red Rum victory double
It is a fact that, for the vast majority of Grand National winners, their big day is a career peak and, if their climb to the pinnacle has been a leisurely ramble up gentle slopes, the descent is usually the quick route; steep and rocky, vertical in places.
Today’s Randox Health-sponsored 172nd running of the race, comprising 30 fences and 4¼ miles, may be shorter and more forgiving than in the past, but it is still the ultimate challenge for the thoroughbred and very few of this iconic steeplechase’s heroes ever win any race again. Who can blame them for resting on such laurels?
But how many horses actually improve for winning a Grand National? Red Rum was one. In 1973, he received 23lb from Crisp and beat him three-quarters of a length. In 1974, he shouldered 12st and beat a dual-gold Cup winner, L’escargot, seven lengths, giving him 1lb.
Another, arguably, was Many Clouds, who put up his career-best performance on last start at Cheltenham nearly two years after his 2015 National win. Beyond that, they are rare birds, indeed. Gay Trip, West Tip, Corbiere, Party Politics, Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass all came back to be placed, but none could win it again. But, whichever way you look at it, Tiger Roll appears to have improved since last year’s race, winning a graded hurdle at Navan and skipping 22 lengths clear of his rivals in the Glenfarclas Cross-country at Cheltenham with such elan and enthusiasm that his form coming into this year’s race is almost too good to be true.
So, what can stop him? Well, history is against him for starters, though he will not know that it is 45 years since Red Rum was the last to win back-to-back Nationals.
The ground may prove more of a problem than history and it has gone against him now he returns with 11st 5lb instead of 10st 13lb. It could be a crucial difference, given he is not the biggest horse in the world and last year had four weeks after Cheltenham instead of three.
Though unlikely to go off as short as Golden Miller, who was 2-1 in 1935 – and unseated his rider at the 11th – he represents little value. You really want double-figure odds just to get round.
With that in mind, Anibale Fly, runnerup in the Gold Cup, is the class act, but placed horses (he was fourth here last year) rarely go on to win the race the next year. A horse’s first shot at the National is usually the best and top weight will probably anchor him today.
I like the Trevor Hemmingsowned pair of greys, Lake View Lad and Vintage Clouds. Both have a nice profile and though, historically, greys and Scottish horses do not win too often, there is nothing which suggests a Scottish-trained grey cannot win, and Lake View Lad’s chances are exponentially better since Thursday’s rain.
Vintage Clouds does not win often but is consistent, stays and one of his wins was on Aintree’s Mildmay course and it is remarkable how often that form translates well to the National course despite their huge differences.
Rathvinden, winner of the fourmiler at Cheltenham last year, looks the pick of the Willie Mullins team. Pleasant Company comes with no better form than he did a year ago when so close for his third attempt and has each-way chances again.
Tiger Roll, obviously, tops the batting order of the Gordon Elliott XI. Dounikos will not mind the ground, nor will Mala Beach, the best hope of an amateur rider this year, while Robbie Power, riding Jury Duty for a syndicate of schoolmates from Moynalvey, Co. Meath, would be a poignant winner.
One of their number, Ciaran Collins, who put the Sideways Syndicate together, died from cancer two days before Jury Duty beat Presenthis
The ground may prove more of a problem than history for Tiger Roll
ing Percy in a novice chase in November 2017, so the horse may qualify for help from above.
The vibes from Lucinda Russell about the 2017 winner One For Arthur are very positive, but he has nevertheless had a rotten preparation, unseating his jockey in both starts this season.
The National, surely, will fall to a female jockey before the Gold Cup or the Derby but, despite all the barraising at Cheltenham last month, it is hard to see either Tea For Two or Valseur Lido doing it for Lizzie Kelly or Rachael Blackmore respectively today.
Step Back, at his Bet365 Chasewinning best, has a genuine chance of succeeding, but, given the conditions are likely to be ultra-testing, I like the lightly-weighted Walk In The Mill for the West Country yard of Robert Walford. He fits the template: first National, right age (nine), a winner over further than three miles (in the Becher Chase over the fences in December), an unblemished jumping record in Britain. And, in Baroness Dido Harding, the only former FTSE 100 chief executive to have ridden round Aintree, he is blessed with a lucky owner.
What is more, having been so wild in his younger days that he was unrideable and had to be exercised by being led from a bicycle, he is a character with a good story, which so often seems the main prerequisite for Grand National success.