Classic EU fudge is worst of both worlds: this saga is still far from over

For much of the Brexit negotiations the EU has maintained a united front and made quick-sharp decisions about how to handle the UK’S requests – but on Wednesday night that intra-eu discipline finally broke down.

What emerged from six hours of talks in Brussels was an ugly duckling

compromise driven by the need to resolve Franco-german differences as much as it was anything to do with addressing the merits of Theresa May’s request for an extension to Article 50 to June 30. The eventual outcome of an extension to Oct 31 – with a soft review at the June European Council summit – is now arguably the worst of all worlds.

It is too long to avoid the UK taking part in the European elections on May 23-26, and sets up the self-evidently pointless prospect of the UK holding polls to elect 73 MEPS.

But it is too short to create the kind of long “cooling-off ” period that some EU leaders had hoped might provide a chance to break Britain’s Brexit fever and create the space for a new approach, or even a new parliament.

Why did we end up in this position? Essentially, because EU leaders agreed a mid-point between Emmanuel Macron’s demands for a short extension that ran to no longer than June 30, and the preference of Angela Merkel and the majority of EU leaders to “go long”. In reality there are now just 10 weeks until the June summit “review” and then, allowing for a fallow month for the August summer holidays, another eight weeks before the next exit deadline.

Given the stalemate in London, that means time is still very short, but Mr Macron was absolutely adamant during the discussion that Britain should not be granted a long, “blind” extension of up to a year, even though this was the explicit preference of at least 17 EU leaders.

The French president was increasingly isolated but still defiant as he said that June 30 should be the final date, with his preference for May 7 – before the UK was forced to take a decision on EU elections. Along with Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator, the French said it was imperative to keep the pressure on the UK to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.

Mr Macron warned that Europe was making a false political economy if it allowed its fears of a no deal to lead it to a long extension. This, he warned, would just import the UK’S political crisis into the EU and delay his EU “renaissance” programme.

Unfortunately for Mr Macron, the rest of the EU has never shared the French appetite for a no deal, which is based on the belief in Paris that the British side would be brought quickly to heel by chaos at the ports. “This council was not about the UK but about France,” said one diplomat tartly.

But with Mr Macron so firmly entrenched, the only face-saving option was what one diplomat called agreeing to “a meaningless mid-point”.

Or put another way, if the UK were out by Oct 31, then the UK would not need to appoint a new European commissioner, thus avoiding the risk of an exiting UK making mischief following the retirement of Jeanclaude Juncker in November.

But, of course, so long as the UK has held European Parliament elections there is still nothing in EU treaties to stop the EU extending again in October. Minutes after the meeting Mrs Merkel was saying that leaders had agreed to “take stock of where we stand” at the October council.

Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, argued that after six more months it will be “increasingly more difficult to grant an extension”.

But as one EU diplomat observed: “If we need to roll it over to avoid a no deal, then we can.” All in all, a classic EU fudge, another kick of the can: Brexit still looks far from over.