Downfall of dictator What lies in store for Sudan after 30 years under Omar al-bashir’s iron rule?

QWhy did the protests break out?

AWidespread protests began in December over soaring inflation, limits on bank withdrawals, and a sudden tripling of the price of bread. This month, tens of thousands of protesters took heart from the success of a similar uprising in Algeria, and called a sit-in protest outside the army headquarters in emulation of a

similar uprising in 1985.

QAWho takes over?

Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibnouf, the defence minister, announced dictator Omar al-bashir’s arrest and appears to be in pole position to replace him. Other powerful regime insiders include Salah Gosh, head of the intelligence services, and Mohammed Hamdan Duglu, known as Hamedti, who led the Janjaweed militia in Darfur. There are few obvious candidates from the opposition side, but two doctors, Mohamed Yousef Ahmed Almotafa and Mohamed Nagi Alsam, are often mentioned as respected figureheads of the movement.

QSo the military will just swap dictators?

AIt’s not quite that simple. Bashir created

multiple armed security agencies and militia groups and played them off against one another. Furthermore, there are genuine rifts within the establishment. That makes it more likely the aspirations of the liberal protesters will succeed – but also raises the spectre of a civil war.

QWhat will happen to Bashir?

ANobody knows. He’s currently under

arrest but it’s unclear whether authorities will hand the dictator over to the International Criminal Court, where he is wanted on charges of war crimes and genocide. Other options include holding him under house arrest, exiling him or even allowing him to retire quietly.

QAnd what now for Sudan?

AMuch of what happens next

will depend on the brewing showdown between the street movement and the establishment. Junior and middle-ranking soldiers are believed to be sympathetic to the protesters, and even fought firefights with pro-government militias trying to break up the sit-in. But it is unclear if they will be prepared to disobey orders and protect the protesters now that Bashir has been ousted.

QWhat about the rest of the world?

AProtesters have called on the West to help ease the economic crisis and ensure a democratic transition. But with Bashir out of the way, Sudan could easily become a new front line in a regional cold war between Turkey and Qatar on one side, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other. Egypt will shed

few tears for the dictator, but can only look on nervously at the prospect of a democratic revolution next door. And it is not yet clear how Vladimir Putin’s Russia will react. Bashir had been building a nascent alliance with the Kremlin.