Editorial Comment:
Theresa May launched the Tory Euro-campaign yesterday in a near-empty room. She fluffed her lines and almost said that the Tories “will” deliver Brexit when she meant to say “can”. Even the word “can” is a stretch under her leadership, which is finished bar the resignation. The negotiations with Labour over a customs union Brexit have come undone; the 1922 executive committee has forced the Prime Minister to agree to timetable her departure in June. There is little left for her to do except be in charge when the Euro-results come in – to put on a smile and take the blame. Meanwhile, Conservative MPS are already throwing themselves into a leadership contest that hasn’t technically started. But if they think it’s all over for the May era, it isn’t yet. In fact, things are about to get worse. One poll puts the Tories on nine per cent, behind the Greens.
It’s as if the party is inches from going over a cliff edge though everyone is too polite to say anything – and this has been the modus operandi of Mrs May’s time in office. Her Brexit strategy was dead on arrival at Chequers last July, but she replaced her Brexit and foreign secretaries and carried on, facing defeat after defeat, putting off the inevitable. Any other politician would have changed direction, away from the cliff edge; Mrs May waited patiently for the cliff edge to move away from her. Perhaps she and some senior Tories think the Euros can be dismissed as a protest vote, a one-off event before the return to politics-asusual; but there’s another school of thought, that the Conservative Party is already hurtling towards the earth below and the Brexit Party represents the future of three-, four- or even five-party politics. There should be some air of emergency among the Tories, but instead there is vague talk of timetables. This is the problem: when a Prime Minister fails to lead, all one is left with is speculation.
Readers might expect the leadership hopefuls to focus on Brexit and overhauling the party’s philosophy – and many of them are doing just that. It is interesting, however, that Matt Hancock, in an interview with this newspaper, also lets it be known that he wouldn’t hold an early general election.
This will be music to some MPS’ ears: they are, understandably, worrying about their jobs. Such is the scale of the mess Mrs May leaves behind that the election of a new leader won’t instantly clear it up. Will whoever wins the Conservative contest actually be able to command the House and govern? If a Brexiteer emerges victorious, some Remainers say they will abandon the party; if a Remainer wins, support in the country will continue to haemorrhage to Nigel Farage. Either way, the House will still be paralysed; the Withdrawal Agreement will need to be renegotiatied; and the basic choice between Brexit and no-brexit will remain unresolved.
An early election on current polling puts Labour in power, which is almost unjust, given that Jeremy Corbyn has imitated Mrs May’s policy of not committing to one position or another. The contradiction has hurt him less because the Labour brand is stronger and he is in opposition. The polls could encourage some Tories to back delay or an even softer Brexit, but as the cliff edge gets closer it would be much wiser to think about a completely fresh strategy, which means putting preparation for a no-deal Brexit back on the table and returning to Brussels with a whole new set of demands. It goes against some Conservatives’ instincts to think in such radical terms, but they really need to understand the scale of the disaster they face – and the number of seats that are under threat if things carry on in this zombie fashion. In that sense, next week’s elections could be the cathartic shock the party needs – even if many good candidates suffer the consequences and many loyal Tories sincerely regret it.
Some Tories really need to understand the scale of the disaster they face and the number of seats under threat