If Brexit is not delivered soon, the Conservative voter exodus will continue ... and Mrs May’s successor will be wearing a crown of thorns

The Conservative Party faces disaster in the European election. On average, the final polls in the run-up to the vote put the party’s support at just 11 per cent. Support has fallen by as much as eight points from the very modest level at which it stood in April, when it first became apparent Britain might be voting for MEPS after all.

Such an outcome would be even worse than the 15 per cent of the vote to which Labour sank in the 2009 European election in the dark days of Gordon Brown’s premiership.

It would easily be the party’s worst

result ever. In short, the Tories face the prospect of receiving one of the biggest electoral rebuffs ever suffered by an incumbent government.

It would be redolent of the disaster suffered by the Conservatives in Canada in 1993, when they were left with just two seats in the federal House of Commons.

Even though a proportional representation system will be used, an 11 per cent nationwide vote could well leave the party with no more than two or three MEPS.

Seats are allocated separately in each of the 11 different regions – and on average there are just six to be won in each.

A party would need at least 14 per cent of the vote to be sure of winning a seat – and, if the polls are correct, the Conservatives are likely to fall below that threshold in most regions.

The reason for this disaster is simple – the party’s failure to deliver Brexit, coupled with confusion among voters about what kind of Brexit it wants.

One of the few successes achieved by the Conservative campaign in the 2017 election was to squeeze the Ukip vote. Most Leave voters reckoned backing Theresa May was more likely to ensure that the UK left the EU.

However, that vote was always potentially at risk if Brexit were not delivered. The polls consistently find at least half of Leave voters think the UK should leave the EU without a deal.

They do not regard the Government’s inability to secure the passage of the proposed withdrawal

‘The reason for this disaster is simple – the Conservative Party’s failure to deliver Brexit’

treaty through the House of Commons as a valid reason for not having left the EU on the original date of March 29.

Rather, the Government’s difficulties have left them befuddled and bemused.

According to Yougov, no less than two-thirds of Leave voters believe that the party’s stance on Brexit is unclear or confusing, while as many as 40 per cent have come to the remarkable conclusion that the party is anti-brexit.

All it needed was a spark to light this potentially volatile political mood – and that has been provided by the return of Nigel Farage to the fray.

His charismatic and articulate leadership of a party that argues straightforwardly in favour of leaving without a deal has resulted in a flood of Leave voters switching from the Conservatives to the Brexit Party.

It looks as though three quarters of those who voted Leave in 2016, then Conservative in 2017, are now minded to put their cross against the Brexit Party in tomorrow’s election.

Many of these will have voted for Ukip before. They are simply returning to their former Eurosceptic home – and a party whose message very few find unclear or confusing.

With the Brexit Party also making more modest gains among Labour voters who voted Leave, Mr Farage looks set to come a clear first in the contest, with perhaps as much as a third of the overall vote.

Meanwhile, the spectacle of the Conservatives struggling over Brexit has done nothing to stiffen the sinews of loyalty among the minority of their supporters who voted Remain. Up to one in five of them appear minded to switch to the Liberal Democrats.

Of course, what will most concern Tory MPS is what this impending disaster might mean for the party’s prospects in a general election. Here the position is not quite so bad.

On average, the party stands at 24 per cent in voting intentions for a Westminster election while the Brexit Party has a more modest 18 per cent.

Moreover, past experience suggests that once a European election is over, voters often return to their previous loyalties, abandoning their temporary flirtation with whatever small party has recently enjoyed a surge.

However, if Brexit is not delivered soon, voters may not forget this election quite so easily. Mr Farage may continue to eat away at Tory support.

If so, then whoever inherits Mrs May’s crown could well find it is made of thorns.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and Senior Fellow, Natcen Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’