From Berlin to Budapest, they are bracing for Boris – but he could offer chance to reset talks

There could be space to work against the Johnson stereotype which Brussels loves to embrace, partly to distract from its own failings

Theresa May’s inability to sell her compromise Brexit deal to her own party has been clear in Brussels for some time now, but it is only more recently that the shape of her likely successor has started to weigh more heavily in the EU capital.

The sudden rise of the Brexit Party – and the clear polling evidence which shows that Boris Johnson is the politician most able to bring its angry supporters back into the Tory fold – means that from Berlin to Budapest they are now bracing for Boris.

No one should underestimate how difficult an adjustment it will be within

the Brussels institutions to have the EU’S baiter-in-chief these past three decades striding into that vast kaleidoscopic European Council chamber as Britain’s prime minister.

Boris, as journalist, commentator and even as foreign secretary, never stopped ribbing Brussels, at one point likening the EU’S insatiable desire for the “ever closer union” of Europe to those of Napoleon and Hitler, albeit by rather less drastic means.

There is no point denying the awkwardness, and in some quarters outright contempt, a Johnson as prime minister would encounter in Europe.

To make matters worse, the European side, which believes the Conservative Party has been negotiating with itself for far too much of the Brexit process, can equally see that whoever wins the Tory crown will inevitably have done so by tacking towards a hard Brexit. No candidates, Mr Johnson included, can ignore the Brexit Party’s “better deal or no deal” promise that has left Tories facing a near-wipeout at this week’s EU elections.

The only realistic option for leadership candidates is to stand on a “renegotiate or reject” ticket, a pledge to “renegotiate” the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, including the Irish backstop and then, if the EU does not budge, “reject” it in favour of no deal.

It would seem, given how many times the EU has repeated that the Withdrawal Agreement is not up for renegotiation, that a catastrophic collision is inevitable, whoever shows up at Brussels as prime minister.

But the election of a new leader could also open the briefest window of opportunity to reset this process – on both sides of the Channel.

Personalities matter in politics, and if the reports are correct that Mr

Johnson favours a big-tent, One Nation platform, there is space to work against the Johnson stereotype, which Brussels loves to embrace, partly as a distraction from its own failings.

Senior EU diplomats say they are fully expecting Prime Minister Johnson to come and bang the table, but they may yet find him disconcertingly conciliatory on many of the broader aspects of the EU-UK relationship after Brexit.

It is also true that in recent months, Mrs May’s biggest problem in Europe is that her political counterparts had, not unreasonably, completely lost confidence in her ability to sell the deal back home.

EU diplomats know that part of the problem was that Mrs May’s intentions were never trusted by Brexiteers. Privately, they speculate whether a Brexiteer such as Mr Johnson, were he chosen in 2016, might have been the “hawk who sold the peace” and convinced the grassroots to swallow a deal not unlike that of Mrs May.

That might still be the case, though no one should underestimate the immensity of the challenge ahead.

It is not just Mr Johnson who is backed into a political corner. On the key issue of the Irish backstop, the EU is equally entrenched. Mr Johnson might want, for example, a time limit to the backstop, noting that in January, the Polish foreign minister mooted that a five-year limit might do the job, and he was not alone. You do not have to go far in Brussels to find member

states who question whether Michel Barnier overcooked the negotiations by creating a backstop that frontloaded a question that would have been better solved over time.

But that does not mean the EU will give in, particularly if the current EU parliamentary elections see gains for populist parties. Or, as one senior EU diplomat puts it: “If we give in, we make Johnson a great political figure.”

So Europe has its politics too, but equally Europe also does not want no deal, as was demonstrated at April’s European Council meeting where key nations such as Germany and the Netherlands faced down France and stepped back from the brink.

On the face of it, amending the substance of the Irish backstop may well prove a bridge too far for Europe, but if Prime Minister Johnson was taking a surprisingly different path, might the EU too? Five years is a long time to work out solutions.

Or might the window for searching for “alternative arrangements” on the border – already a feature of the existing deal – sound more attractive coming from a prime minister who actually believes he can make it work? Could Mr Johnson sell that at home?

The opportunity for a reset will be fleeting and will require brave statesmanship on both sides at a time when anger and polarisation are the dominant political impulses; but the costs of failure are much higher than either side cares to admit. It would be reckless not to try.

Privately, they speculate that, if chosen in 2016, he might have been the ‘hawk who sold the peace’