Jeremy HUNT
It is tempting to dismiss headlines about a disastrous European election as “tomorrow’s fish and chip paper”. This time that would be a fatal mistake. Just one month after disastrous local elections the Conservative Party has suffered its worst performance in any election since 1832. The results contain a simple message which we ignore at our peril: if we attempt a general election before we have delivered Brexit we will be annihilated.
Attacked by the Brexit Party on the Right and the Liberal Democrats on the Left, we will face extinction. Any candidate for prime minister whose strategy leads to a general election is offering a prospectus for disaster.
Neither should we draw comfort from Labour’s performance. Labour paid the price for its lack of clarity with a very bad night, but we are in government and Brexit is our responsibility. In a national election, we would pay a much heavier price than the opposition for a promise undelivered. The most likely outcome would be a damaged Labour sneaking through the middle, supported by the SNP. So not just a Marxist in Downing Street but a severe threat to the Union as well. The stakes are that high.
These election results show we have a fractured country, with people retreating to opposite Brexit extremes. Conservatives cannot heal the country unless we heal our own fracture first. Yet just when we should be coming together, some constituencies are trying to deselect lifelong Conservatives like Caroline Spelman, Mark Pawsey and David Gauke.
The only way through is to rediscover our generosity of spirit and remember that being a broad church has been our political genius for many years. In the 1980s, Norman Tebbit and Geoffrey Howe sat round the same cabinet table. In the 1990s, Ken Clarke and John Redwood worked together.
Today we need Rory Stewart and Boris Johnson – yes, both of them – because both wings of the party have important insights. The Thatcherites remind us of the importance of radical change, and the One Nationers remind us that elections are won by appealing to the centre ground. Separately neither group will succeed but together they have forged the most
formidable political party in the Western world. Let’s not throw it away. If we unite we can deliver Brexit – with our DUP friends – and fight off the forces of Farage.
I detest his dogwhistle politics but I understand his appeal: now not so much about Brexit as about politicians and whether they can be trusted to deliver their promises. The only way to prove him wrong is to deliver Brexit. And there is only one way to do that: by uniting and re-entering negotiations with the European Union.
With the current deal, I cannot see a way forward. I voted for it three times because I believed that, for all its imperfections, leaving quickly was better than risking no Brexit. I have always believed that no deal is better than no Brexit, but parliament has passed laws to stop a government willingly walking into no deal. It could do so again, if necessary through a confidence vote. Any prime minister who promised to leave the EU by a specific date – without the time to renegotiate and pass a new deal – would, in effect, be committing to a
‘The last thing [Brussels] wants is to make a concession to Britain’s populist movement’
general election the moment parliament tried to stop it. And trying to deliver no deal through a general election is not a solution; it is political suicide. That would delight Nigel Farage and probably put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10 by Christmas.
A different deal is, therefore, the only solution – and what I will pursue if I am leader. That means negotiations that take us out of the customs union while generously respecting legitimate concerns about the Irish border. Technology offers great promise with “intelligent borders”.
Why would the EU leaders do that? Because they do not want the shadow of Brexit hanging over them. Go to them with a shared problem and there is a chance of a shared solution.
The European Commission sees populism as an existential threat. Angela Merkel worries about AFD and Emmanuel Macron just lost to Marine Le Pen. The last thing they want is to make a concession to what they see as Britain’s populist movement. But that does not rule out a reasonable and statesmanlike request to change the backstop for a different set of guarantees on the Irish border, which is what we must aim for with all our energy.