Sir John CURTICE

Almost inevitably, politicians of all persuasions have attempted to argue that the European election results show that most voters back their side of the Brexit debate. The result has given all of them plenty of material they can use.

Those in favour of leaving without a deal can point out that the Brexit Party came first and this shows that leaving without a deal is the single most popular option among voters. However, proponents of a second referendum respond that whereas 35 per cent voted for parties that back leaving without a deal, rather more, 40 per cent, supported those who argue for another ballot.

In response, Brexiteers argue that as the Labour Party is still officially in favour of Britain leaving the EU, the 14 per cent that it won together with the 9 per cent that the Conservatives secured should be added to the Eurosceptic tally, and thus a majority voted in favour of Leave.

However, that logic simply leads to the retort that, given the Labour Party is willing to contemplate holding a second referendum, as many as 54 per cent indicated support for a second ballot, and that this therefore is the more popular view.

In short, there is plenty of scope for everyone to interpret the facts to suit their existing preferences.

Many voters used the European election to express their views about Brexit. As a result, some parties’ support came almost wholly from Remain or Leave supporters. Lord Ashcroft’s post-election poll confirms that this was certainly true of both the Brexit Party and Ukip, nearly all of

whose support came from Leave voters. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats were overwhelmingly a Remain vote.

That said, by no means all voters backed the party whose stance on Brexit is consistent with their own. Even though voters rejected both the Conservatives and Labour in droves, those that did back one of Britain’s traditionally dominant parties were far from being of one mind about Brexit.

The Tory party found itself equally (un)popular among Remain and Leave voters. And although both Labour and SNP voters were more likely to be Remain than Leave supporters, both parties enjoyed the support of a substantial minority of Leave voters.

Against this backdrop, it makes little sense to use the party tallies to infer the balance of opinion on Brexit.

That said, this does not mean that the election tells us nothing about voters’ attitudes towards Brexit. It has long been evident in the polls that leaving without a deal and remaining in the EU are the two most popular Brexit choices. That is confirmed by Lord Ashcroft’s post-election poll which finds that 27 per cent support leaving without a deal and 46 per cent remaining in the EU. What, however, we have learnt anew from the European election is that many voters hold these views sufficiently strongly that they are willing to abandon traditional party loyalties.

Such a picture suggests that resolving the Brexit impasse in a way that secures the acquiescence of a majority of voters could well represent as big a challenge for the next prime minister as obtaining the consent of MPS for a withdrawal treaty. This is the key lesson that politicians on both sides of the debate should take away from the European election results rather than indulging in interpretations that simply affirm their existing convictions.

John Curtice is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde