Message from the EU remains the same

‘Any hopes that a big advance by Eurosceptic parties would create a parliament more sympathetic to the British have not been fulfilled’

It was not just in the UK that the traditional parties of Left and Right took a beating at the European parliamentary elections – all across the bloc, mainstream parties lost out to a motley crew of new insurgent political forces.

But the combination of a stronger showing by the Liberals, a mini “Green wave” and populist gains in the south and east of the EU creates political deadlock in Brussels that could last for some months as the main political families engage in horse-trading for the EU’S top jobs.

Meanwhile, the Brexit Article 50 extension clock is still ticking down to

October 31, and any hopes that a big advance by Eurosceptic parties would create a parliament more sympathetic to the British have not been fulfilled.

Although anti-eu parties did better than in 2014, those parties remain divided among themselves and still only account for about a quarter of seats in the new European Parliament or, at the broadest measure, one third.

Therefore, however the fraught the centrist coalitions might prove, some combination of the centre-right, the Liberals, the Greens and the Socialists is set to continue to hold water in Brussels. This may even prove a disadvantage for the British come October 31, since Emmanuel Macron looks set to be a kingmaker in those talks, despite his party losing narrowly to Marine Le Pen’s party.

Under pressure at home, Mr Macron can be expected to continue his “put up or shut up” approach to Brexit, arguing that the issue needs to be settled sooner rather than later in order that the EU can embark, undistracted, on his much-trailed “renaissance”. Protracted negotiations over who should replace Jean-claude Juncker as EU Commission president might also bolster arguments for a quick resolution to the Brexit issue.

In any event, diplomats and officials across Europe can perfectly well see that the result of the UK election now means that a new Conservative prime minister will almost certainly be elected on a binary “renegotiate or reject” ticket.

And here the message from the EU remains consistent: there will be no renegotiation on the Irish backstop (note how pro-eu Ireland is now) or the rest of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Officials in Brussels are already braced for the resulting parliamentary “car crash” in Westminster and preparing for whatever down-to-thewire tactics a new Brexiteer prime minister might try to force their hand.

In short, when it comes to Brexit on the continental side of the Channel, very little has changed.