The biggest threat to England is themselves
Our best-ever one-day side must not fall into the trap of thinking they are unbeatable
England are favourites to win the World Cup but they have to beware overconfidence or complacency, believing they are invincible. Hubris can be dangerous.
They have a settled squad, are playing on grounds they are familiar with and there will be huge home support. England have never been favourites or the best team before but this is our best chance and I believe it is our time.
Fifty-over cricket has become a batting game with big bats, small boundaries, flat, dry, grassless pitches and England are a batting team with all their players on form except for Moeen Ali.
Ben Stokes has found runs and confidence in the past couple of matches, wicketkeeper Jos Buttler is outstanding, all the bowlers can bat and England have been chasing down almost any total for nearly two years. They are that good at batting.
We have the balance of a wrist-spinner and a fingerspinner, an all-rounder and – a big plus – Mark Wood is fit, and Jofra Archer has arrived to add that extra pace we were lacking.
England are a very fine fielding and catching side as well. Talent-wise they are good enough, but they need to show they can think on their feet and be smart.
We were favourites for the Champions Trophy in 2017 but lost the semi-final at Cardiff trying to smash more than 300 having failed to assess the pitch. It was a used surface, with the ball not coming on, it stopped a little, and we did not need that many runs to win. We finished up only scoring 211. Pakistan chased the total down with 13 overs to spare and won by eight wickets. We threw it away. We were our own worst enemy.
It was the same with Stokes in the last over of the World Twenty20 final in 2016 in Kolkata. We threw that away as well. The penultimate over was bowled brilliantly by Chris Jordan as he only conceded eight runs. With 19 runs to play with in the final over Stokes lost the match in four balls, being belted by Carlos Brathwaite.
Stokes had a poor Indian Premier League. He bowled the last over for Rajasthan Royals against Chennai Super Kings and messed it up again. Full marks to Ben for putting his hand up and having the strength of character to bowl the last, pressure over. But it is not enough to put your hand up. You have to be able to execute.
Making Ben the man to bowl at the death in this World Cup is a big risk. He is not bowling that well and he has lost a bit of confidence. It is vital that England are clear who are going to be the death bowlers. They are priceless, but Ben worries me in that regard. Australia will be dangerous because they have two outstanding, wicket-taking seamers in Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins. Starc, in particular, can be expensive, but taking wickets is a huge plus for any side because it slows down the scoring rate with new batsmen having to play themselves in.
I accept their batting has been weak but in the absence of David Warner and Steve Smith, Australia have had a year to see which of their new guys can step up and cut it at the top. They will be stronger with Smith and Warner back. Leaving aside his mouthy antics, Warner is a terrific batsman in all forms of cricket. One of the very best. He is not lucky, or streaky. He is just very talented. Australians always field and catch brilliantly and they have some very good batsmen. Glenn Maxwell is a rare talent, like Buttler, and Aaron Finch has a good record in ODI cricket. They are challengers.
India are always dangerous in one-day cricket but more so now. Ten years of IPL have made India the home of one-day cricket and the players know it is their passport to instant fame and fortunes, more so than Test cricket, so there is lots of competition for places.
They have two good spinners in Yuzvendra Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav. MS Dhoni is an amazing finisher with enormous strength and willpower. Perhaps this is his last big tournament.
Rohit Sharma has a remarkable one-day record. He controls the innings, and they have Virat Kohli, who is a brilliant batsman and fierce competitor. Hardik Pandya is an all-rounder who hits it hard, but the biggest plus is that for the first time they have some very good seamers. Jasprit Bumrah has an odd action but he is very successful and Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Shami have bowled brilliantly in England.
West Indies can do some damage with their batting. People will be expecting fireworks from Chris Gayle. That is possible, but the question is will he stay fit to play nine group matches? He is not an athletic guy, moves around badly, never wants to run for anything. He can get away with that in T20, but in 50-over cricket you are out in the field for 3½ hours. Will he break down?
South Africa always come with talented players. But they have a knack of self-destructing. In Kagiso Rabada they have a fantastic bowler. Pace, bounce, movement, he has it all. Dale Steyn is 35 now, but has had a few injuries, and the key is keeping those two fit. Their biggest question mark is Hashim Amla, whose form has dipped. He is making a lot of mistakes, which makes me wonder if his eyes are going. I would consider dropping him down the order.
Pakistan are always mercurial, unpredictable. It must drive their supporters crazy. Their fielding is so poor they cannot win the World Cup unless it improves. It has such a demoralising effect on the whole team. They have some wonderful batsmen but discipline with the ball is not there.
The only other contenders are New Zealand. I have great admiration for the quality cricketers they produce from a population of just five million people. They are a credit to cricket. After England, I hope that they get to the final.