Poker-faced Boris’s ‘bluff ’ has left EU diplomats scratching their heads

In the game of political poker that is Brexit, Boris Johnson has said that the Hallowe’en date must be honoured “do or die”, but even the toughest poker player usually takes time to raise the stakes on his opponent.

Which is why it was surprising to many Brexit observers to apparently see Mr Johnson go “all in” on a no deal on Monday night, effectively pushing his entire stack of chips into the middle of the table and challenging his EU opponents to call his bluff.

In Brexit terms that was the implication of Mr Johnson declaring that neither a time limit nor a unilateral exit mechanism to the Irish backstop would be sufficient to clear the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament.

Jeremy Hunt agreed.

This effectively ruled out the two main “fixes” to the backstop that prominent Brexiteers were demanding this spring in order to pass Theresa May’s deal. Now it seems that the bar to accepting that deal has been raised once again.

Both the EU and the Irish government have – to be clear – publicly ruled out these “fixes”, but senior EU diplomats in recent months have not completely ruled them out as the eleventh-hour price of an orderly Brexit.

But this was always at the outer margins of what was politically possible, and now Mr Johnson seems to have leapfrogged that discussion straight to a “bin the backstop” approach that the Irish and the EU say they will never accept.

What does this mean? Brussels is left scratching its head, wondering if Mr Johnson – once prime minister – will really be so binary in his approach when installed in No 10.

So doors are not being slammed quite yet, but EU diplomats warn that if Mr Johnson keeps this up then the EU will move directly to a no-deal footing, believing that it is far better prepared than the UK to weather the costs.

So who is bluffing? Mr Johnson or the EU? Going “all in” is either a sign of great strength or great weakness – an act of intimidation, or an act of desperation from a player who knows that they cannot afford to have their bluff called.

Perhaps Mr Johnson believes that, as part of his overt strategy, it is essential to telegraph his total commitment to a no deal in order to get the Irish to “blink” and accept the very concessions on the backstop that both sides are now ruling out.

By setting the bar so high, this thinking goes, Mr Johnson arguably creates the negotiating space for a compromise that sees him “accept” a time limit, while Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach, meets him halfway in an act of statesmanship.

The alternative is simply to take what Mr Johnson says at face value, in which case we are heading for no deal, barring a parliamentary intervention.

At this distance, no one can be certain which course prime minister Johnson would take – not even his own Brexiteer supporters who secretly fear his resolve may yet crack – and perhaps not even Mr Johnson himself.