Nigel FARAGE
After 40 years of dreaming about becoming prime minister, this is not the start that Boris Johnson would have wanted. He takes over a bitterly divided party, he has no overall parliamentary majority and he has just 100 days to deliver Brexit. Truly, this is a bittersweet moment for him.
His party’s position in the Commons is not about to improve either. Next week, the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, Tory-held since 2015, seems certain to be gained by the Lib Dems in a by-election.
Furthermore, I expect resignations from within the Conservative parliamentary party if Mr Johnson proceeds with his “do or die” Brexit strategy. For the fact is that many Tory Remainer politicians don’t just dislike Brexit, they actively hate Mr Johnson as well.
I believe he may conclude the only way to survive in No10 is to revisit the failed Withdrawal Agreement and ask Brussels to help change some of its words. In the unlikely event that such a rehash were to be passed by MPS, Mr Johnson would buy himself some breathing space, but the bigger picture would be bleak. It would lead to more years of discord and anger.
An alternative survival route might be if he sought a further extension beyond Oct 31. But, having given repeated assurances that the UK will leave the EU by that date come what may, it’s impossible to see how even he could pull off such a stunt and emerge with any credibility.
Fewer than half of Conservative voters believe Mr Johnson will be able to deliver on his “do or die” promises.
And, so far, the bounce for the party in the opinion polls with him as leader still leaves them languishing on 25 per cent.
There is no doubt that the past three years of lies and indecision have taken
‘Any further delay beyond Oct 31 will be seen as a second great act of betrayal and support will collapse’
their toll and that trust in politics is badly broken. But trust in the Tories is equally badly broken. Any further delay beyond Oct 31 will be seen as a second great act of betrayal and their support will collapse altogether.
The European elections were a sobering experience for the Tories. Their support fell to only 10 per cent of the vote and I already know of several large-scale Tory donors who switched to the Brexit Party overnight.
Arguably, the Conservatives’ future is already in doubt. Suddenly, it is “do or die” not just for Brexit, but for the Conservative Party as well.
Mr Johnson should realise that he is going to have to risk his longed-for position as PM to ensure Brexit is enacted properly. There is no prospect of a meaningful Brexit thanks to the views of most sitting MPS. And any attempt to prorogue Parliament will lead to the PM being brought down by his own side. The inescapable truth, therefore, is that he must hold an autumn general election. That is his only way out. Doing so will take enormous courage. Inevitably, it will trigger a split in the Tory Party. But the country is crying out for leadership and a resolution to the Brexit crisis.
For this strategy to work, he will need the support of the Brexit Party. But it is far from straightforward. I genuinely struggle to understand where he stands on many of the great issues of the day. He flip-flops on HS2. He is similarly inscrutable when it comes to the third runway at Heathrow. He has no discernible policy on how to tackle immigration.
Even on Brexit, he was very late to the cause. He will have a lot of convincing to do to persuade us that an early election will lead to a cleanbreak Brexit on Oct 31. If he is able to convince us, then together we would electorally smash the Labour Party, he would assume a big working majority, and he would go down as one of the great leaders in British history.
But is Boris Johnson brave enough?