India and Pakistan must look beyond Kashmir

The two countries should focus on their respective internal challenges and the prize of resuming trade

It’s not often that either of us would agree with the Russian assessment of a major geopolitical issue. But on India and Pakistan’s rekindled dispute over Kashmir, we believe the Kremlin has it right: the changes made by India last week to the status of Jammu and Kashmir have been made within the framework of India’s constitution, and the long-standing territorial dispute

should be resolved bilaterally by Pakistan and India in accordance with relevant UN resolutions.

The permanent members of the Security Council appear to have little appetite to interfere in this issue. One of the reasons for this caution is serious misgivings about Pakistan’s motivations, particularly the concern that Islamabad is trying to internationalise the issue of Kashmir to distract attention from its domestic failings. The prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, would be well

advised to stop expending precious diplomatic and financial capital on the Kashmir issue in order to focus instead on the development of his country, which stands on the verge of bankruptcy, as it negotiates yet another multibillion-dollar bailout from the IMF.

What Pakistan has long resisted accepting is that the country’s most serious existential threat is not India; it is internal extremists – together with inadequately developed economic opportunities. The strategic fixation of Pakistan’s military and intelligence services on the perceived threat from India has been useful to them domestically – and maddening to its friends overseas; however, it has for far too long led governmental agencies to pursue the wrong priorities.

In the period since India and Pakistan gained independence in 1947, India has outperformed Pakistan on virtually every economic and social indicator. According to World Bank data, India’s GDP per capita currently stands at over $2,000, outpacing that of its neighbour by almost 40 per cent. Meanwhile, the infant mortality rate in Pakistan is almost twice that of India, and literacy rates are also lagging behind. This is despite Pakistan being one of the world’s leading recipients of overseas aid and now one of the major beneficiaries of China’s Belt and Road initiative.

To any outsider, the citizens of these two countries are essentially the same people with the same potential. Yet in the case of India and Pakistan, the forces that determine economic, social, and political progress have diverged to the detriment of ordinary Pakistani citizens.

This is not a reason for India to be smug. It has rightly drawn fire for its heavy-handed tactics, placing Kashmir in lockdown to pre-empt the risk of a backlash and to maintain order. But the prolonged muzzling of dissent would be unedifying for the world’s largest democracy, and the sooner that media and political freedoms can be restored, and daily life normalised, the easier it will be for India to explain and defend its actions.

The fundamental calculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made appears to be that by fully integrating Kashmir into India he can effect a reverse “triple talaq” (Islamic divorce) by improving security, enhancing prosperity, and unifying the nation state. As with any high stakes strategy, much will depend on the quality of the execution. But though India’s tactics may be questioned, its strategy of equalising the rights of all its citizens is difficult to fault.

While seeking to regularise the situation in Kashmir, India should also be mindful of its own economic situation. Recent data shows a concerning slowdown in activity, with GDP growth dropping below 6 per cent, a softening in demand for consumer goods, and insufficient levels of investment. This modest performance is paradoxical in a country that enjoys strong leadership, clear vision and the prospect of political stability. India should be picking up the growth baton from China – it has a unique opportunity to become the major inversely correlated economy during a slowdown in Asia, thereby providing a valuable hedge if the incipient cold war between the US and China takes a frostier turn.

At this time of heightened tension between the two important nuclear powers of South Asia, both countries would best serve their respective citizens by following Winston Churchill’s advice that “jaw jaw is better than war war” – and then focusing on internal challenges rather than on those posed by their neighbours. (And, dare we offer, resuming trade and recognising the benefits of opening each of their economies to the other.) Beyond averting conflict, there is a big prize that awaits both nations if they can unlock their human and economic potential. The huge talents of the global Indian and Pakistani diaspora are evident the world over from Silicon Valley to the City of London. They remind us that it would be a great human tragedy if a territorial dispute over Kashmir diverted one-fifth of the world’s population from fulfilling its true destiny.