All this talk of Brexit chaos shows we depend too much on Dover Ambrose Evanspritchard
Britain’s trade transport system is no longer fit for purpose. Today’s deformed structure amounts to a failure of statecraft over decades and – as we are discovering – it is a potential threat to economic national security. Goods from Germany’s Ruhr Valley or the manufacturing clusters of Baden-württemberg are transported in lorries to the Channel and from there to Leeds, Doncaster, Sheffield or Manchester in the UK’S industrial heartland. Shipments of Scottish whisky are trucked in the opposite direction down the length of this island to Dover and on to markets in Europe.
The time saved, compared to using longer shipping routes at ports closer to product origin and destination, is mostly insignificant for non-perishable goods. The just-in-time mantra is a canard. For some destinations it may even take slightly longer.
Reliance on trucks and drivers greatly increases the danger of a logistical debacle if Britain is compelled to leave the EU without a deal – that is to say if Brussels insists on indefinite EU control over swathes of UK law, with no unilateral exit mechanism.
The problem mushrooms once human beings are involved. There is an extra layer of paperwork. “It is easier to ship a container than process a truck. You pre-clear customs. It is just a click,” said Simon Bird, of the Humber region for Associated British Ports (ABP).
The concentration funnel at Dover is narrow and prone to delays. The risks were already evident in 2015 when a four-day strike by French ferry workers caused a 17-mile lorry jam up the M20 and cost £250m a day.
The crossing is vulnerable to political manipulation. If Emmanuel Macron wishes to cause chaos at the French ports, he has the means to do so. No sovereign country can tolerate this.
Over-reliance on Dover road freight may have made financial sense – at the margin – when there was a surplus of East European hauliers willing to work long hours at low pay. Cheap labour is one reason why the share of UK-EU trade through Dover has jumped from 14pc to almost a third since the early Nineties. That era of abundance is over. Wages are soaring in the old Warsaw Pact countries as their economies catch
up. Hauliers say there is a shortage of 60,000 drivers in Britain. Hourly rates for HGV transport last year rose 5.4pc.
Road shipments on the current saturation scale through Kent, around the M25 and up through the Midlands occur only because the incentive structure is warped. It does not fully “price” the economic and social cost of congestion, noise, diesel pollution, C02 emissions, road erosion, or the 15pc of fatal accidents involving lorries.
The ecological footprint of competing sea routes to ports on the Humber or Teesside is lower, and will be lower still under the world’s new marine shipping rules. They are safer.
A study by the University of Hull Logistics Institute for ABP found that switching from Dover to the Humber ports for destinations in the UK’S “Central East-west corridor” added just three hours to an average 34-hour journey time. This was averaged over routes from Frankfurt, Munich, Hanover, Paris, Milan and Warsaw.
It would add three and a half hours to the Manchester-frankfurt route (based on ship speeds of 17 knots), but lower carbon emissions by a quarter.
Regardless of the environmental imperatives of Net-zero 2050, the Brexit debate has exposed this country’s over-reliance on a single strategic choke point. Successive governments have been careless. Brexit “notifications” issued by Brussels say UK goods will be deemed incompatible with EU regulations on Nov 1 even before any divergence could possibly have occurred, in breach of WTO principles, and therefore subject to checks that could lead to jams.
French officials, under orders from Paris, are threatening a maximalist interpretation rather than a “riskbased” approach on the basis of common sense. This would guarantee jams. Dutch and Belgian officials seem less inclined to treat Brexit as a punishment exercise. Ergo, switch to them wherever possible.
French ports chief Jean-marc Puissesseau protests that there is nothing to fear in Calais. He accuses UK vested interests of whipping up “catastrophism” and insists that freight flows will be fluid even after a no-deal. He may be right on technical grounds. But political threats remain.
Two years of such “catastrophism” has in any case caused the market to take matters into its own hands. Lord Wolfson said Next will no longer import products via Calais-dover. The Humber ports at Immingham and Hull have seen a 30pc rise in ship arrivals since the referendum.
ABP says the raw economics of UK-EU trade is driving companies towards direct shipments – by container or roll-on/roll-off using trailers – to ports near the British industrial core. Some of this shift would have happened anyway. Brexit is accelerating the process.
Antwerp, Zeebrugge and Rotterdam are licking their lips. “Brexit has made companies re-evaluate supply chains. We see it as a real opportunity and the Humber is our number one target,” said Justin Atkin from the Port of Antwerp.
“We’re already seeing a change: cargo is moving to alternative routes. Shippers are looking for something that doesn’t involve a truck. It doesn’t stop the inspection of goods but it takes out the human element,” he said.
“Once you move to unaccompanied vehicles you don’t need the shortest crossing any more. In some cases it may be cheaper as well,” he said.
Dover and the road haulage industry have done us a favour by warning in apocalyptic language that 17-mile queues await, even if their motive was to soften Brexit or stop it altogether. “If they keep saying we’re all doomed, others are going to step into the fray,” said one port expert.
Whether or not there is a Brexit deal, this country needs a radical shake-up of its port system and freight links. Sea and rail should be the default presumption for all long-haul trade.
We must never again allow political adversaries to gain such sway over a single strategic choke point. Start now.
‘If Macron wishes to cause chaos at the French ports, he has the means to do so. No sovereign country can tolerate this’